Rush into EA federation is sheer madness

There is immense potential for enhanced prosperity in the region through greater trade and financial ties, which all Kenyans fully support.

It is therefore vital we get it right. But we are embarked on a rather foolish path which will not benefit Kenya.

Why do we pretend that we have not been on this road before, and that it was a complete failure? The East African Community we forged at independence was like an Albatross around Kenya’s neck, severely constraining our growth by keeping us at the lowest common factor until Tanzania and Uganda could catch up and reach our standards.

No one cried when Mzee Jomo Kenyatta decided in 1977 to dismantle what was an extremely fragile Community. In fact, the dissolution of the union was greeted with great jubilation, and its benefits were quickly evident.

There was a scramble for the booty, and Tanzania did best by getting the beautiful EAC headquarters in Arusha. We at least got all the East African Airways planes, which we grounded each time one landed at the EAA hub at Embakasi.  

There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that we are once again building on quicksand and wasting precious resources when so many deserving areas are crying for investment, such as teachers.

There is no real feeling of friendship among our peoples except at the abstract level, as the Migingo dispute shows.

Astonishingly, even as the countries are facing enormous challenges in establishing a well-functioning Community, there is simultaneously a headlong rush for the creation of a full federation.

This is sheer madness. Kenyans need to be very wary that they are not dragged into committing to a “politically correct” goal that will fail because it has no real foundation.

The violence in Migingo between Kenyan and Ugandan policemen last month is a perfect case in point. This festering dispute remains unresolved despite numerous high-level meetings between the two countries. Our people live in a state of fear there, and  are frequently harassed by Ugandan police on our own territory.

Did Presidents Uhuru and Museveni even discuss this matter when they met at a summit last month? If not, then we know there is no community or goodwill to speak of. 

Interestingly, Uganda never questioned Kenya’s sovereignty over Migingo during Mzee Kenyatta’s presidency or even during President Moi’s. President Museveni raised it out of the blue five years ago with President Kibaki. Migingo is ours.

Separately, we are embarking on this federation at a time when the model for such unions, the EU, is facing its most serious challenges.

Intense public anger

The severe hardships inflicted on citizens in a number of European countries saw elected governments give way to externally-supported leaders who would accede to Eurozone requirements.

This has generated intense public anger over the loss of sovereignty and of control over national priorities that membership of the European Union entailed. We cannot continue to ignore lessons that are staring us in the face from the experiences of older democracies.  

In any event, the EAC negotiations are not going well. There is no consensus between its five leaders. Three weeks ago, Presidents Uhuru, Museveni and Kagame met in Kampala to lay out the roadmap for the federation. That the meeting was held without Presidents Kikwete and Nkurunziza shows the divisions on the issue, as well as the haste which has marked the federation drive.

At the moment, those pushing the federation can delude themselves that only Tanzanians are apprehensive of the plan. They for sure are opposed because they fear Kenyans and believe we wish to take over their economy.

But if this question was brought to a referendum even in Kenya, leaders would be humiliated by the rebuff they would get since our people have no idea how they stand to benefit from a political federation.

And yet, having unilaterally admitted Rwanda and Burundi to our original bloc of three countries, the leaders are now planning to include the northern tier countries - South Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia – with whom we have historically had few state-to-state links, and which are not even significant trade partners.

There is no support for this grandiose and wasteful project, which will fail.

Mr Njonjo is a former Attorney-General