Silent exodus from an overstretched city

• The congestion and the jungle-forest effect that defines even the once-spacious and leafy Nairobi suburbs such as Kileleshwa and Lavington have caused an exodus out of the city. But it is not entirely a rosy story as, in certain cases, the new residents have transferred congestion to their new addresses — as is the case in the once sleepy Thika town

Ngina points at the invasion by banks, insurance companies, supermarkets and other big businesses as the best pointer you will get that immigration is a good thing.

Prof Joseph Kieya, head of the Public Sector Development at the Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA), a socio-economic think tank, believes such movement of people is laudable from the economic perspective, but worries over its impact on agriculture.

Prof Kieya sees towns as far flung as Kenol in Murang’a County in the North, Machakos in the East, Kajiado in the South and Kiambu and Limuru to the West as some of the major winners from a decline of the attractiveness of Nairobi as both a business and residential base.

“Nairobi has since independence been on a rapid expansion of a largely unsustainable nature,” he says. One result of that has been a difficult traffic situation in Nairobi that has seen the city ranked one of the most difficult cities to drive in by an IBM Survey. That has come at a big cost to the economy, says Prof Kieya.

“These traffic jams cost our economy billions of shillings every year as people who should otherwise be involved in progressive economic activity are unnecessarily held up. It’s the same with goods and services that cannot reach their markets in good time. Decentralising some of Nairobi’s activities to other towns can relieve pressure on the city as people access services away from the city centre.”

The Achilles Heel of this expansion has been the conversion of rich agricultural land to residential areas, a development that is hardly sustainable, according to economists.

“Clearing coffee farms in Kiambu and Thika counties to develop real estate projects is a major mistake, especially when you consider that areas around Mlolongo and Kajiado have little agricultural worth. We should be careful as policy makers not to encourage settlement in such areas.”

Gerishon Ikiara, a leading economist and a former permanent secretary, concurs, arguing that Nairobi losing out to other regions is not a bad thing.

“A decade or so ago, Nairobi commanded about 70 per cent of the national Gross Domestic Product. That has now dropped substantially, and that is a positive sign that economic decentralisation programmes of the last eight years or so have been successful.”

Ikiara also expects the counties envisaged in the new constitution to further aid the development of areas outside of Nairobi. The city will have to rediscover itself in a new identity as, presently, most people would wish to leave if they could help it, adds Ikiara.

Moving the government from Nairobi to a different town could be a good idea, adds Ikiara, although present economic realities will stand in the way of Kenya following Nigeria and Brazil in shifting the seat of government to deal with congestion.

As for people moving out of Nairobi, Ikiara says that is a good example of a progressive society that is able to make big choices.

“Let our people go to Naivasha, to Machakos and to Thika. Let them settle there and help improve the local economies. It’s a very positive development,” he sums it up.