Blame game on as Kenya power goes out

As electricity rationing starts to bite, industry players are blaming the Kenya Electricity Generating Company, (KenGen) for failing to carry out routine system maintenance at key installations, and over reliance on hydro sources.

Power utility firms, on their part, are blaming the Treasury for delaying in providing security guarantees to private investors.

They say these would have seen an additional 252MW injected into the national grid to cover the shortfall.

Several other factors have also conspired to drive the country to the brink of darkness. In August 2009, the government enlisted the services of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) after water levels at Masinga dam, the highest in the country’s main seven forks cascade went dangerously low following prolonged drought.

But this time, industry players say the reason lies elsewhere, with several power stations undergoing routine maintenance, thus cutting off 128MW from the national grid, according to energy permanent secretary Patrick Nyoike.

He said the country is operating without a reserve margin, owing to increased demand in recent years, leaving little room for system maintenance.

According to Mr Nyoike, the country is sitting on the edge, with demand for power threatening to outstrip supply.

Experts also say inability by Kenya Power to evacuate available energy from the Coast to areas where it is needed most also contributes to the national shortage.

“Failure to evacuate power at the Coast is due to weak distribution lines. Ask why there is no power rationing at the Coast,” said a source not authorised to speak to the press.

According to Kenya Power, the country is facing a shortfall of between 70MW and 90MW at peak hours (6.30pm to 9.30pm), when most domestic consumers switch on electricity.

The shortage is, however, estimated by the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) at about 200MW — Western 60MW, Nairobi up to 100MW and Mt Kenya 40MW.

KenGen managing director Eddy Njoroge said estimates for power demand in Kenya could be higher, particularly with rapid expansion of economic activities in recent years and rural electrification.

“The demand for power has been rising faster than we anticipated. We have relied on the GDP to estimate growth of demand, which has been at an average of 5 per cent. But it turned out that it was growing at 8 per cent per year,” said Mr Njoroge when he visited Kindaruma Dam.

The dam is being upgraded to add an extra 32MW, bringing the total output to 72MW. Rapid expansion of economic activities since 2003, when Gross Domestic Product rose from 0.6 per cent to 7.1 per cent in 2007, exposed the vulnerability of the energy sector that was starved of donor funding in the 1990s due to governance issues.

Peak demand in 2003 was just 790MW, but has grown to a staggering 1,200MW currently, sometimes jumping to 1,300MW, which leaves a thin reserve margin or none, putting the country on the brink of a total blackout.

The installed capacity stands at 1,412.2 MW, according to the government’s 2010 Economic Survey released early this year.

“The peak demand has increased to 1,300MW. The country has been operating without a reserve, therefore when some of the stations are closed for routine maintenance, there are shortages,” said Mr Njoroge.

Kenya, he said, should build a reserve of 20 per cent to weather the shocks in the systems and to ensure a steady supply of power.

Demand for power, according to economic experts, is expected to rise by 10 per cent every year once implementation of Vision 2030 projects gathers momentum.

In 1990s, no major projects were undertaken, and what the government has been doing is playing catch up to stabilise the sector.

Experts in the utility companies say expansion of power generation can only start in three years, after the projects under construction are completed.

The problem of power shortages is starting to take a familiar trend, falling from July, like it happened in 2009 when rains delayed in the Mt Kenya catchment areas, forcing power firms to turn to expensive thermal power which uses fossil fuels to generate electricity.

Kenya’s power situation is worsened by over-dependence on hydro sources, where it draws 51 per cent. The sources have increasingly become unreliable, with increased frequency of droughts.

The government has also in recent years accelerated electricity connections, particularly in rural areas, opening up more economic activities in small and medium enterprises.

Setting up of more housing units in urban and peri-urban centres has further increased connections that are now set to hit the 2 million mark in June. Production of power seems not to have matched that growth.

The energy sector works on a demand growth of 7 per cent annually. But the current shortage suggests that demand is growing at nearly 12 per cent, which is good for a growing economy.

There has been increased demand in the country and the region with most industries operating at near or full capacity. “We should not let the infrastructure constrain it. We cannot choke growth at this point.” said KAM last week.

On the other hand, invitation of expensive IPPs in the late 1990s as a temporary measure to ease blackouts has now become a permanent feature of the power mix, attesting to the grave electricity situation.

The country is currently on 60MW from IPPs, and an additional 60MW is to be activated should the rains in October fail to materialise.

“The issue of weather (influencing power supply) will come in at the end of August,” said Mr Nyoike. Nevertheless, gas turbines which can inject 60MW in Nairobi are currently in the works.

Players say system losses in the distribution chain, estimated at 16 per cent, have not helped the matter, though Kenya Power managing director Joseph Njoroge says this is better when compared with some neighbouring countries that have double that figure.

The problem is worse in Western Kenya where rationing has been going on for several months. The region relies on power from the Eastern part, with the long distance and weak distribution lines causing heavy system losses.

“It has been even more challenging in Western Kenya where, besides foregoing the power transmission, the system does not have adequate capacity to transport available power from Eastern parts of the country,” said Mr Njoroge.

“As a sector, we have to admit that some things would have been done better,” said Mr Eddy Njoroge last week.

The power shortage, according to Kenya Power, is caused by a shut down at Turkwel for maintenance that shaved off 53MW and lack of 26MW from Mumias Sugar, attributed to inadequate bagasse, a by-product in sugar manufacturing used to produce power.

Players say the country has no option but to stick to an implementation schedule of power projects to meet the rising demand.

The Ministry of Energy says 29 per cent of the population is currently connected, and there are plans to up-scale it to 40 per cent by 2030, the year Kenya is expected to attain a medium level economic status, with a vibrant industrial sector.