Climate change a stumbling block to Africa’s economies

African countries have in recent years recorded considerable economic gains.

Sub-Saharan African economies are projected to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2010 compared with 1.3 per cent for industrialised countries and 2.5 per cent for developing countries, excluding India and China. But this hopeful outlook now faces new threats from climate change.

According to the World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, released today, a two-degree Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels could permanently reduce Africa’s annual per capita consumption by four to five per cent. The report calls for urgent action to ensure that Africa’s prospects are not undermined by climate change.

Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions have been modest because of its low levels of industrial output. Yet the continent is likely to suffer disproportionately from climate change. African countries are therefore right to demand that international climate negotiations be based on principles of historical justice.

Financial support

The report calls on industrialised countries, which have released most of the greenhouse gases, to lead the way in charting a new low-carbon economic path. In

addition, the report calls for financial support to enable developing countries adapt to climate change and lay the foundation for low-carbon economies.

Fragile ecosystems are a dominant feature of sub-Saharan Africa. Nearly two thirds of its surface area is dry land or desert, which makes it highly vulnerable to droughts and floods. Much of the continent’s political instability is associated with the fragility of its ecosystems and low levels of technological competence to compensate for the natural deficiencies.

Africa’s economies are also highly dependent on natural resources. Nearly 80 per cent of its energy comes from biomass and a third of its gross domestic product comes from rain-fed agriculture, which supports 70 per cent of the population.

Stress is already being felt in critical areas such as water supply. Today, 20 African countries experience severe water scarcity and another 12 will be added in the next 25 years. Economic growth in regional hubs such as Nairobi is now being curtailed by water shortages.

The drying up of Lake Chad (shared by Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger) is a grim reminder of the dramatic ecological challenges that lie ahead. The lake’s area has decreased by 80 per cent over the last three decades, with catastrophic impacts.

Lake Victoria is receding as well and projected reductions in the rivers in the Nile region signal difficult times ahead.

Uncertainty over water supply affects decisions in other areas such as hydropower, agriculture, urban development and overall land-use planning.

Security issue

Water scarcity is emerging as a security issue. This is mainly because the continent’s 63 trans-boundary river basins together account for over 90 per cent of its surface water. Africa has yet to develop effective mechanisms for sharing such resources.