Surprise surge in Kenya’s population as fertility rises

• Ironically, with Kenya making strides in the fight against HIV/Aids, fewer people are dying, keeping death rates lower than birth rates

An increased birth rate among Kenyan women and low levels of contraceptive use are the main causes of the robust population growth in recent years, experts have said.

According to Government demographers, up to 25 per cent of men and women would like to use contraceptives but have no access. The level of contraceptive use remains at 39 per cent, where it was 10 years ago.

Making strides

The experts say an increased number of Kenyan women are bearing more children, with some hoping to gain some form of insurance in numbers against HIV/Aids-related deaths.

Ironically, with Kenya making strides in the fight against HIV/Aids, fewer people are dying, keeping death rates lower than birth rates.

So real are these new observations that National Coordinating Agency for Population and Development (NCAPD) director Boniface K’Oyugi said the Government has had to revise its population projections to 38 million people by next year when a national count will be done.

Initial projections for the National Housing and Population Census pointed to a count of 35 million, with the population expected to hit 36 million in 2010.

Dr K’Oyugi said officials were surmising that more Kenyan women were choosing to have fewer children. Instead, the number of births went up.

Government statistics show that what appeared to be a fertility decline over the previous two decades now looks like the beginnings of an increase.

Fertility had dropped from 8.1 births per woman in 1978 to 4.7 in 1998 when the Kenya Demographic Health Survey (KDHS) was conducted.

The fertility level rose to 4.9 in 2003 and could accelerate if fears that numerous women became pregnant during the post-election violence period are confirmed.

Because many families, especially in the western parts of the country, were forced to stay at home at the time, it is believed many pregnancies could have occurred as a result.

“We cannot confirm that many women became pregnant during the post-poll violence until the next KDHS,” said NCAPD deputy director Kimeli Chepsiror. The next KDHS is this month.

Dr K’Oyugi said the population rise arose because earlier expectations that fertility will drop did not come to pass.

North Eastern Province had a fertility rate of seven children while Western and Rift Valley each had 5.8. Coast had 4.8, Eastern (4.8) and Central, 3.4. Nairobi reported the lowest fertility rate, at 2.7.