Book predicts worse poll violence

Kenya’s lack of national identity means that its future elections could become more violent, a new book to be published in the United Kingdom on Thursday says.

The book, Wars, Guns and Voters, examines sub-Saharan African countries that have had difficulty adjusting to political pluralism.

The book, dedicated to Kenyan anti-corruption campaigner John Githongo, says Kenya cannot move forward while ethnic politics dominate debate. Ethnic politics “contaminate” election campaigns, Collier writes.

Collier, a highly regarded economist and expert on developing countries’ economies, says ethnic politics prevents corruption being tackled seriously. “Public services are systematically worse as a result of ethnic diversity,” he writes.

He also comments on attempts to tackle corruption, particularly Githongo’s efforts to expose those on the take.

“Githongo’s devastatingly detailed revelations became world news. But instead of triggering a general clean-up, the long term response of the regime was to circle the wagons and disgraced ministers have been reappointed.”

Collier criticises successive leaders for failure to build a Kenyan identity and contrasts this with Tanzania’s success.

He also says that Kenyans cannot afford to continue with politics as usual, pointing at the huge economic damage.

“In the years leading up to the (2007) election, the Kenyan economy had been doing rather well: its fastest growth for more than two decades. Nor had the benefits of growth been confined to the Kikuyu. Even the Luo recognised that they had become better off.

“(Yet) 98 per cent of the Luo voted for Odinga. With this sort of voting behaviour, there is little incentive for a president to provide national public goods: he might as well favour his own.”
He says most Kenyans “no longer regard the country as a functioning democracy,” and this could leave the country trapped in a cycle of poll violence.