Cracks deepen in ODM

• The rivalry within ODM’s ranks is threatening to tear it apart, with strong indications that leaders from Rift Valley are seeking new political alliances

“ODM is very strong. What we have are different opinions on issues like the Mau complex dispute and trials of post-election violence suspects,” Mr Duale said.

Behind the scenes, Mr Ruto’s allies seem to be working to strengthen their grip on ODM and its affiliates.

“We are nominally in ODM for now, and we will work with the government of the day, but we will exercise our right to seek other options later,” said Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto.

The activities of the United Democratic Movement (UDM), in particular, stand out. The party has made moves to consolidate its support in Rift Valley Province and among the pastoralist communities.

It has held several rallies in Isiolo and Narok in the past few weeks as part of its strategy to broaden its base. The party has been cited as a possible option for Rift Valley MPs, should they decamp from ODM.

UDM director of elections Moses Cheboi told the Sunday Nation the party would welcome any defectors from ODM but said no negotiations had taken place yet.

“The Political Parties Act allows for coalitions. If Rift Valley MPs joined us, we would be very happy, but at the moment we are focusing on popularising the party because the elections are three years away,” he said.

A close ally of Mr Odinga, who requested anonymity to freely discuss the PM’s strategy, said Mr Odinga had opted to ignore Mr Ruto.

He said the PM would not cede ground over the Mau settlers. This has caused divisions within ODM, and Mr Ruto, he said, was using the issue to whip up tribal support.

The PM, he said, believes Mr Ruto has also misread the public mood in his oppositionto the trial of post-election violence perpetrators.

“Mr Ruto seems to believe that the 2007 violence case will be treated the same way the 1992 and 1997 clashes were, without consequences for perpetrators. But he is wrong on this,” he said.

“Raila has found it hard to understand Ruto’s position that trial of violence suspects targets the people of Rift Valley. He says ODM supporters were shot in many places like Kisumu, Kibera, Mathare, Naivasha, and those people want justice. The PM does not understand at what stage dealing with post-election violence became a witch hunt on the people of the Rift Valley,” he said.

A possible beneficiary of the wrangles in ODM is the Party of National Unity whose senior leaders are said to be reaching out quietly to some of the disaffected ODM members.

One of the PNU vice-chairmen, George Nyamweya, said the party would build a strong alliance ahead of the next General Election. He added that PNU was working to ensure MPs backing the party vote together in Parliament.

A motion introduced by a PNU MP Jamleck Kamau, which seeks to have the President appoint the Leader of Government Business in the House, is likely to provide an indication of the shifting alliances in the next few weeks.