How Raila turned tables on rivals

Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga threw a bash for close associates to celebrate crucial by-election victories that have strengthened his hand in ODM but appear to have done little to heal the rifts in the party.

The PM told guests at a post-election cocktail at the Nairobi Club that the election results would alter the political landscape and compared them to landmark by-elections which saw political giants humbled in the last three decades.

“In 1995, Kanu lost the Kipipiri by-election despite investing heavily,” he told party officials at the event on Friday night. “That was a watershed moment that showed the weaknesses of Kanu and it was almost as significant as the people’s decision to vote out (former powerful chairman of the Kanu disciplinary committee) Okiki Amayo in 1983 and vote in Phoebe Asiyo.”

During the function attended by about 10 MPs, Raila maintained that ODM would remain united.

But multiple interviews with insiders in the campaign team revealed details of the divisions within the party which threatened to scupper ODM’s efforts to secure the Bomachoge and Shinyalu parliamentary seats and point to the deep divisions that still dog the party.

We learnt that the PM had to devise a fallback strategy after all MPs from Kisii region, except Public Works minister Chris Obure, assistant minister Richard Onyonka and West Mugirango’s James Gesami, skipped his campaign tour of Bomachoge and opted to attend a harambee addressed by Agriculture minister William Ruto, with whom Mr Odinga has differed in the recent past.

The PM had to deal with the real challenge -- fending off political rival PNU -- while dealing with ripples caused by internal squabbles said to centre around Mr Ruto.

The PNU campaign -- whose leaders have admitted dealt a blow to the party -- lost even the Bomachoge seat which it previously held and has elicited harsh criticism from within.

Mr Ruto did not attend Friday’s celebration party and was away in the Rift Valley where he had earlier attended the funeral of former Air Force Commander Maj-Gen (rtd) Simon Mutai. The party was attended by nominated MP Musa Sirma who has stuck by the PM’s side despite protestations from fellow Kalenjin MPs.

In an interview yesterday, Mr Odinga struck a conciliatory tone but said the results showed that leaders who opt to leave the party would be punished by voters.

“The victories indicate that we the leaders may have problems with the party and even decide to move on. But it does not necessarily mean the voters (will) move with us,” he said. The PM said his interaction with voters had revealed party supporters appreciate the constraints the ODM is going through in fulfilling its promises within a power-sharing arrangement.

“(Our supporters) are not ready to leave the party. They are determined to give it a second chance. Since 2002, we have been dealing with a very different calibre of voters. We have intelligent and analytical voters who are not so easily swayed. But politicians appear not to have learnt this,” he said.

Apart from consolidating Mr Odinga’s position within the party, the by-elections were seen as victories for two close allies, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi and Mr Obure, who affirmed their positions as the pre-eminent leaders in the vote-rich Western Kenya region.

Campaign sources told the Sunday Nation that Mr Odinga met MPs from Kisii last Wednesday and urged assistant minister Omingo Magara to call off a fundraiser he had planned in South Mugirango two days later as it coincided with his campaign tour of Bomachoge.

Mr Magara countered that he had planned the harambee long before and asked Mr Odinga to postpone his campaign trip.

Mr Odinga rejected this suggestion, saying he had to travel to Shinyalu on Saturday and would fly out to Italy immediately after.

The PM proposed that Mr Magara holds his harambee early in the morning so that he and the chief guest, Mr Ruto, could join him in Bomachoge later.

On the basis of this agreement, Mr Odinga assured residents who raised questions about falling tea prices at a campaign rally in Ogembo trading centre in Bomachoge that Mr Ruto, the Agriculture minister, would join them at the last meeting in Kenyenya to address their concerns.

Both Mr Ruto and Mr Magara did not show up. Instead, Mr Magara introduced officials of an ODM affiliate known as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) at his harambee and asked local residents to watch it closely.

On Saturday, Mr Onyonka said a number of party MPs including Mr Magara had failed to support the party’s campaign effort and asked the group to quit ODM.

“The Bomachoge campaigns have proved that the PM draws his mandate from the electorate and he can move on without them.

Despite some of our MPs refusing to join us, we have gone ahead to deliver the seat. Those who believe that Raila and ODM do not exist in Gusii better think twice,” he stated.

But Mr Magara rejected the accusation, saying that he had notified Mr Odinga of his unavailability.

He also stated that apart from last Friday when he held a function a few kilometres from Mr Odinga’s campaign rallies, he had vigorously campaigned for the ODM candidate, Mr Simon Ogari.

“I also used my position as the party treasurer to mobilise resources for Mr Ogari,” Mr Magara told the Sunday Nation.   

The controversy aside, Mr Odinga employed a number of strategies to mobilise support for the ODM candidate. A key figure in the effort was a local independence-era politician, Mr Zephaniah Anyieni, who urged voters to support ODM by evoking his ties with Mr Odinga’s father Jaramogi.

Mr Anyieni played up the fact that the area had backed Jaramogi in the years following independence, when Mr Anyieni won a parliamentary seat after running as an independent candidate. Kanu officials had locked him out of nominations because of his sympathies for Jaramogi, Mr Anyieni said.

He also reminded voters of the fact that Bomachoge voted in a candidate from Jaramogi’s Ford-Kenya party in 1992, defying a strong campaign by Kanu in the area.

On his part, Mr Odinga sought to downplay the efforts of coalition partner Party of National Unity (PNU) to use State resources to win votes.

He said the by-elections and the next General Election would be unique because all parties were in government.

“Let nobody come here and tell you that they are in government because everyone is in government. Each party should sell itself. Let them also not cheat you that one candidate might be appointed to the Cabinet and not the other because these days ministers are appointed by two people,” said Mr Odinga, referring to the National Accord which requires the President and PM to consult on cabinet appointments.

This statement was aimed at neutralising the effect of the campaigns by PNU ministers in the area. They initiated a number of projects including installation of eight electricity transformers and also promised to recruit local youth into the disciplined forces in a bid to swing the election in favour of their candidate, Mr Joel Onyancha.

Mr Odinga spoke of his record in distributing jobs allocated to Nyanza province “proportionately.” He said the Kisii, Kuria and Luo (the three main ethnic groups in Nyanza) would benefit equally and pointed to the appointment of Mr Ken Nyaundi (a Kisii) to the boundaries review commission and Mr Otiende Amollo (a Luo) to the constitution review team.

The ODM candidate’s eventual victory was seen as a triumph for Mr Odinga, especially after rumours surfaced that senior ODM figures were backing Mr Ogari’s rivals.

But Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny dismissed rumours that some party figures did not adequately back the ODM candidates. “Ruto, for example, actively supported the party.

In fact he was the biggest financial sponsor of ODM’s candidates in the two constituencies. He campaigned in Shinyalu for our candidate (Mr Justus Kizito). We have no problem with ODM, our only problem is with Raila,” he said.

While the Bomachoge by-election was closely watched because the PNU and ODM candidates appeared evenly matched, the Shinyalu by-election yielded a landslide for ODM.

Mr Kizito beat his nearest challenger, Kaddu’s Daniel Khamasi by a 9,000-vote margin.

Reacting to the Shinyalu results, Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale who led the New Ford Kenya campaign for the seat alleged “massive” bribery of voters which he said led to his candidate’s dismal performance.

But Mr Mudavadi dismissed claims that the party had bribed voters. “It is Kaddu supporters who were arrested while bribing voters at polling centres; my take is that the people of Shinyalu have spoken clearly that ODM is their party of choice, the whole thing about a Mudavadi-Jirongo battle is just a myth,” said the Local Government minister.

“There have been cases where some people and especially the media indicated that the by-election was a battle between me and Jirongo. That is not true as the people of Shinyalu are the ones who have elected their MP and not an MP from Sabatia or Lugari,” he added.

With the by-elections over, focus will now turn to continuing efforts to re-unite the party. Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto are expected to meet at an ODM function for the first time in more than a month this week at a joint parliamentary group and national executive council meeting. Party unity and the by-election campaigns are expected to be high on the list of topics to be discussed.