Climate deal in doubt as rich nations waver

• A political pact this year, then a legal one in Mexico next year, says Danish PM

Even as Kenya joins the rest of Africa in calling for a conclusive agreement at next month’s global climate change summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, rich countries have already shifted goal posts to 2010 at a meeting scheduled for Mexico City.

On Tuesday President Kibaki attended a half-day African Union meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, which called for an all inclusive agreement in Copenhagen that gives Africa the necessary support to overcome the threat of climate change.

But this may not come to pass, at least not yet, with organisers of the Copenhagen summit conceding that it cannot deliver a final, legally binding deal.

At best, says Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, is a political deal, followed by a legal one in 2010 in Mexico City.

Initially Kenya had proposed to send a strong delegation to Copenhagen to present its case and justify why it would need international financial and technological support, but this may be modified with the continent planning to present a united front.

“It is high time that the Group of 10, mandated by the African Union Summit of Heads of State and Government to speak on behalf of Africa during the Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change, work out a common position for Africa,” said Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in a statement released after the Tuesday meeting.

The countries that make up the Group of 10 are: Algeria, Republic of Congo, Kenya, Libya, Mauritius; Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa and Uganda.

But even before the Tuesday meeting, Mr Zenawi, the coordinator of group, had expressed his misgivings last week, telling an economic conference in Addis Ababa that it was unlikely the world was serious about tackling global warming.

“It is highly improbable ... the world is serious about climate change and (will decide) to take effective measures to tackle it. But no one can say such an outcome is completely impossible,” he was quoted by Reuters.

Mr Zenawi, who will represent Africa at next month’s Copenhagen climate change talks, has asked the rich industrialised nations to compensate the less developed Africa for the impact of global warming.

Similar sentiments were expressed by President Kibaki on Tuesday. The President said the expected agreement would enable African countries to have access to adequate and predictable financial resources which are required to prevent further damage to the environment.

On Wednesday, Mr Zenawi, without mentioning a figure, said the Group of 10 had agreed on how much to demand in compensation for climate change at the Copenhagen talks.

According to an AFP dispatch, Mr Zenawi said that leaders had agreed on a minimum figure, but expressed pessimism that Africa’s demands would be met. An earlier draft resolution by African countries had put compensation at $67 billion dollars a year by 2020.

Mr Zenawi may have good reasons for his pessimism because the rich nations, led by the US, are unlikely to put hard compensation commitments on the table at the Copenhagen meeting.

At least for now US President Barack Obama’s hands seem tied with climate change bills still before Congress. President Obama, says the NewScientist, is thought to be reluctant to make promises that Congress will not let him keep.

However, environmentalists say that if Mr Obama can get a bill through Congress, an international deal that now looks impossible will be possible next year.

The other and even bigger handle is on whether the major industrial countries will put on the table specific targets in reducing carbon emissions into the atmosphere. The world major polluters, US and China, responsible for 40 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions, are yet to commit any figures.

China has insisted that it will not commit to reducing its carbon intensity unless the US is fully committed to cutting its share.

In related news, Kenya could be home to a unique environmental programme to deal with climate change if a proposal tabled at an international forum is adopted.

President Kibaki on Wednesday urged participants to support in pushing for the upgrading of the United Nations Environmental Programme (Unep) offices in Nairobi into a fully fledged World Environment Organisation. The severity of the environmental disaster and related challenges in Africa justified the improvement of the capacity of the Unep, he added.

President Kibaki reiterated that Africa must remain united and ensure continued commitment to and support of the Kyoto Protocol basis for dealing with devastating effects of climatic change.

“We recognize that the Kyoto Protocol will enable African countries have access to adequate and predictable financial resources. These resources are required to prevent damage to the environment on the continent,” he said.

Budget programmes

The African Group of Ten Summit on Climate Change, is a follow-up of earlier meetings in Algiers in May and Sirte, Libya in July this year.

President Kibaki asked African countries to attend the Copenhagen negotiations with clearly articulated and budgeted programmes and projects to help the continent meet its climate change mitigation and adaptation obligations.

He said during the Copenhagen meeting, Africa must demand that industrial countries meet their carbon reduction targets within specified time-frame.

Additional report by Joy Wanja and PPS