Food crisis feared as El Nino rains delayed

• Met experts insist heavy downpours could still come but add: don’t count on it

Kenya could face an unprecedented food crisis next year, even higher costs of electricity and worse shortages of water because of poor rains.

The current short rains, widely expected to produce el Niño-type weather not only failed to do so; they are even below the normal seasonal amount.

Already, farmers in some parts of the Rift Valley have started to complain of a failing crop and livestock are still dying in pastoral areas because of lack of pasture as the heavens are yet to open up.

The most recent metrological report shows the short rains season has already passed its peak, usually in November. The weathermen also forecast the rains could start reducing any time from next week in some parts of the country.

Highly variable

Assessing the rainfall performance in the last quarter of the year, the weathermen say the rains have been poor and highly variable in many parts. In some areas, they have been below 65 per cent of what is considered normal for the season.

“The poor performance was reflected both in the amounts received and the distribution in time and space especially during the peak rainfall month of November,” says the department.

Just like most farmers, the weathermen are disappointed with the November rains. “The rainfall performance in November was poor and erratic over most parts, with a two-week unprecedented dry spell engulfing most parts of the country.”

However the possibility of an el Niño hitting the country has not been entirely ruled out. “The El Niño phenomenon is still on, but farmers should not bank on it,” says the Central provincial director of meteorology, Mr Francis Nguata.

Although experts expect some parts like western Kenya to continue receiving rainfall well into January, most parts of the country, including the North Rift, Eastern and Coast provinces, may start to see a drying up in the next few weeks.

In the North Rift, farmers say they face the prospect of losing a second crop within a year as plants start to dry up in what looks like the end of the rains.

“The erratic rains have resulted in poor crop germination and most of which have started to wither due to poor rains,” said Mr Isaac Kibogy, who invested over Sh300,000 to plant a second wheat crop.

A second crop

The government allocated Sh1 billion in September to provide farm inputs to farmers who were asked to take advantage of predicted el Niño rains to plant a second crop but the rains have not been dependable.

“Hunger remains inevitable unless the government swiftly moves in to address the situation by importing maize and motivating farmers to invest in drought resistant crops,” says Mary Chepkemboi, a farmer in from Keiyo District.