Kenya's food stocks to run out in April

Kenya’s food stocks will run out in April, resulting in more people going hungry, a new study warns.

The Kenya Food Security report blames the failed or poor rains, high food prices and environmental degradation for the crisis.

The report also warns of increased inter-ethnic conflict over land and water.

The failure of El Nino rains expected at the beginning of September, has spawned fears of poor harvests that will not meet demand after March.
Pastoral areas

As a result of the insufficient February to August 2009 long rains, humanitarian agencies have forecast a 2010 main maize harvest of 1.9 million metric tonnes, about 25 per cent below the four-year average.

The Usaid-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net) that prepared the report says that the main harvest, which typically occurs between October 2009 and January 2010, constitutes more than 50 per cent of Kenya’s annual national maize production.

The Kenya Food Security Steering Group projects that 3.8 million individuals require emergency food aid between September 2009 and February 2010, representing a 32 per cent increase since February 2009.

Of this, about 2.5 million are chronically food insecure individuals in urban areas, 100,000 displaced people, 1.5 million primary school pupils in drought-hit areas and 2 million rural HIV/Aids patients.

The short rains from September to date, the report says, though moderately improving water and pasture availability in some pastoral areas, cannot help the country attain rapid or long-term food security.

“Consecutive seasons of sufficient rainfall are required for pastoral populations to replace livestock.”

Humanitarian aid agencies including Fews Net are predicting only limited and temporary food security improvements following the main maize harvest in early 2010, with subsequent declines in food security starting in April 2010 when limited food stocks associated with a poor crop production are depleted.

The situation has not been helped either by the freak floods that have been reported in Coast, North Eastern, and Eastern regions following the enhanced rains between October and November.

As the rains continue to pound some parts of the country, the report states that the government and humanitarian agencies expect more floods and mudslides, potentially affecting 750,000 people and contributing to increased incidence of disease among humans and animals.

In his 2009 Jamhuri Day address, President Kibaki said the government has been spending over Sh2 billion monthly to feed about 4.5 million people.

“The recent drought was probably one of the severest in living memory,” the President said.

The government’s efforts have been bolstered by the UN that on December 3 released the 2010 Emergency Humanitarian Response Plan for Kenya that seeks to raise more than Sh38 billion.