Food crisis warning for Kenya in 2010

Food shortage and high maize prices is expected to hit the country by April, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has warned.

With the long rains maize harvest drawing to a close, the Ministry of Agriculture estimates total 2009-10 production at 2.29 million metric tones (MT), consisting of long rains production of 1.84 million MT (nearly 27 per cent less than the four-year average) and short rains production of 450,000 MT.

On the other hand, the United States Agency for International Development estimates total production at 1.8 million MT, with long rains output of 1.5 million MT and short rains output at the five-year average of 300,000 MT.

But regardless of the precise production output, a maize deficit is expected to manifest in the second quarter of 2010, says FEWS NET which specializes in issuing alerts to prompt decision-maker action to prevent or mitigate potential or actual food insecurity worldwide.

Furthermore, maize harvest deficit is certain to have a significant impact on access to food, due to continued upward pressure on commodity prices and decreased labour opportunities and income. In pastoral areas, the combination of reduced food availability and access, along with the lingering impacts of conflict in some areas, could result in rising levels of high and extreme food insecurity beginning in early 2010.

In the marginal agricultural areas such as Ukambani, which depend on short rains production for 70 percent of annual production, food security could begin to deteriorate after the first quarter of 2010 if January rains are below average, the agency said.

Already, the Ministry of Special Programmes has warned that ten districts, including Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, parts of Marsabit and Samburu, Kajiado, Narok, Garissa and others are at risk of sliding into serious food insecurity if drought persists.

The latest warning notes that while the country has a structural deficit in maize production even in normal seasons, the 2009-10 deficit is significant because of well above average prices since late 2007.

Current national supply is estimated to be 720,000 MT– about 430,000 MT held by farmers in the Rift Valley, 180,000 MT by the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB), and 144,000 by millers and traders. Although supply is likely to meet domestic demand through part of May 2010, prices are expected to increase beginning in early 2010, as households in the grain basket are unlikely to sell most of their harvest while a national deficit is manifesting.

However, deliveries of maize to the NCPB have slowed because of outstanding payments of Sh560 ($7.5 million) million due to farmers, and this could increase supply to the open market rather than the NCPB, potentially moderating the expected price increases.

The outlook for food insecure pastoral and marginal agricultural households remains worrisome in the face of lowered national maize output.

Poor rains in the north-western and southern pastoral areas have provided little reprieve for pastoralists facing poor livestock prices, high cereal prices, lingering impacts of conflict in the northwest, and an upsurge in livestock and human disease, most notably cholera.

The grim food outlook comes a few months after CountrySTAT Kenya was unveiled. Launched in November, the Web-based information system will allow experts and policy-makers an improved access to quality statistics on food and agriculture.

The development gains even more importance since Kenya represents the first English-speaking country among 17 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to launch CountrySTAT with the backing of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

The grant to FAO for its CountrySTAT programme provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is part of the Foundation’s Agricultural Development initiative. The latter works with a wide range of partners to provide millions of small farmers in the developing world with tools and opportunities to boost production yields, increase incomes, and help farmers build better lives for themselves and their families.