Grain shortage ‘to raise cost of flour’

• The price of maize is also expected to rise by April

A grain shortage and high maize prices could hit the country by April, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said on Sunday.

The warning came at a time the Government was yet to announce an extension in the importation of duty-free maize, which would avert a rise in maize flour prices.

The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that 2.29 million metric tonnes of maize will be harvested in the 2009-2010 season. On the other hand, the United States Agency for International Development estimates total production at 1.8 million tonnes.

Regardless of the precise production output, a maize deficit is expected in the second quarter of 2010, says FEWS NET, which specialises in issuing alerts to prompt decision makers into action to prevent food insecurity worldwide.

In pastoral areas, reduced food availability and access, coupled with the lingering impact of conflict in some areas, could result in rising levels of food insecurity later in the year.

In the marginal agricultural areas, including Ukambani, which depend on short rains, food security could begin to deteriorate after the first quarter of 2010 if January rains are below average, the agency said.

Already, the Ministry of Special Programmes has warned that 10 districts, including Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, parts of Marsabit and Samburu, Kajiado, Narok and Garissa are at risk of sliding into serious food insecurity if drought persists.

Current national supply is estimated to be more than 700,000 metric tonnes – about 430,000 tonnes held by farmers in Rift Valley, 180,000 tonnes by the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) and 144,000 tonnes by millers and traders.

Although supply is likely to meet domestic demand through part of May 2010, prices are expected to increase beginning early 2010, as households in the grain basket zone are unlikely to sell most of their harvest when there is a national deficit.

Deliveries of maize to the NCPB have slowed down because of outstanding payments of Sh560 million due to farmers, and this could increase supply to the open market rather than the NCPB, potentially moderating the expected price increases.

The outlook for food-insecure pastoral and marginal agricultural households remains worrying in the face of lowered national maize output. Poor rains in the northwestern and southern pastoral areas have provided little reprieve.