Dilemma of creating more constituencies

The greatest challenge in reviewing Eastern Province boundaries will be in the northern part of North Horr, Saku, Laisamis and Moyale. Only Moyale has an ideal population size with the rest having numbers less than the threshold. North Horr, which is the largest constituency in terms of geographical size, needs an additional 20,000 people while Saku and Laisamis require 33,381 and 28,528 respectively.

In the Central Eastern area, only Siakago needs an additional population of about 10,000 people. This may be carved out of Nithi, which has an excess of 62,153 people. In the South Eastern area, a new constituency is likely to stem out of Mwingi North and Mwingi South, which have a combined population of 384,948.

Another one is likely to be carved out of Kathiani and Kangundo, which have a total population of 462,822. A third constitution in the region may arise from Makueni and Kibwezi, which have a total population of 492,023. A section of Makueni will also need to be carved out to add the close to 7,000 people needed to make Kilome ideal.

The North Eastern data, which has been challenged, shows that Mandera Central would need to be split at least two times to get to the ideal population. Additional constituencies would also have to be carved out of Dujis, Lagdera, Wajir East, Mandera East and Mandera West, which all have excess populations.

In Nyanza, none of the constituencies is below the limit, 19 are ideal while 13 have populations above the required numbers. The alterations in Kisumu will mostly affect constituencies that are outside what is commonly known as Luo-Nyanza. Since no constituency needs additional numbers, the boundaries commission will use more than a single constituency to carve out new ones.

Four constituencies in the Rift Valley are below the threshold, 16 are within, while 29 have excess population. Four constituencies – Turkana North (374,414), Eldoret North (391,655), Naivasha (376,243) and Kajiado North (387,538) – have populations double the maximum threshold, meaning that they can be split at least two times.

The Central Rift Valley is likely to have the greatest alterations due to its cosmopolitan nature and definitely affecting politics in the region. Several constituencies will be created by carving out sections of existing ones. Samburu East and Mogotio, which are among those below the threshold, are surrounded by constituencies that cannot be carved out. This promises to be one of the greatest challenges for the IIBRC.