Dilemma of creating more constituencies

The face of 126 constituencies is bound to change in the ongoing boundaries review on the basis of results from the 2009 census released this week.

The data released by the government shows that 27 constituencies are below the population margins derived from a formula spelt out in the new Constitution. Another 100 constituencies have more than the maximum population allowed by the Constitution.

The results show that Kenya has 38,610,097 people, while the Constitution limits the number of constituencies to 290. Calculations from the provisions of the new Constitution show that constituencies in cities and densely populated areas should have between a minimum of 79,883 and a maximum of 186,393 inhabitants.

Constituencies in sparsely populated areas should have between 93,197 and 173,079 inhabitants. Only 84 of the current 210 constituencies fall within these ranges, according to the census data. The Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission is expected to create 80 new constituencies while making sure that none of the existing ones is lost, which will definitely be an uphill task.

The commission, headed by Mr Andrew Ligale, is also required by the Constitution to consider geographical features and urban centres; community interests, historical, economic and cultural ties and means of communication while drawing up the boundaries. Efforts to reach Mr Ligale on the next step his team is taking were unsuccessful. We could not reach him on the phone.

New constituencies will either have to be carved out of existing ones or will arise from splitting some of the constituencies. Less than 20 constituencies qualify for splitting, which means that the majority of the new ones will arise from carving out from a number of the existing ones.

This will lead to some politicians losing their strongholds, and increasing the likelihood of losing control in their regions. Regions where politics is likely to change significantly include the Central Rift Valley, Nyanza, Coast, Western and parts of Eastern. The fate of North Eastern region is uncertain after the government ordered the census to be repeated in some of the areas.

This may delay the entire boundary review process, which will also be a tall order since the IIBRC has only three months to complete its work. New electoral areas will have to be carved out of all the eight constituencies in Nairobi as they have populations of over 186,393 people.

The most populated constituency in Nairobi – Embakasi – can be split five times while Kasarani can be split to three constituencies. The rest of Nairobi’s six parliamentary electoral areas contain between 1.5 and 2 constituencies. With a population of 4,838,743, the formula in the Constitution shows that Nairobi should have at least 23 constituencies – 15 more than it has today.

Nairobi is one of the cosmopolitan areas that may see a change in how politics plays out after the alteration of the constituencies. For instance, members of the Kamba community may end up dominating one of the new constituencies in Embakasi since they are the predominant tribe on the eastern side of the city.

In Langata, the review commission may have to take into consideration the interests of communities such as the Nubi despite their number being just slightly over 15,000. In other regions in the country, boundaries will have to be shifted in a way that tries to equate the populations of the highly populated constituencies and that of the less populated areas.

In Central Kenya, 14 constituencies are within the limits, nine are above while six are below the threshold. Juja constituency, which has the highest population in Central at 486,121, can be split into three. The constituencies surrounding Juja also fall within the population limits outlined in the new Constitution.

None of the other constituencies in Central Kenya can be split into two but most can have a fraction of a constituency carved out of them to create new ones. This means that some residents may find themselves outside the electoral areas where they traditionally belong. For instance, a section of Kinangop, which has close to 20,000 more people, may be shifted to Othaya which needs about 10,000 more residents.

The same would happen to Ol-Kalou whose neighbour, Ndaragwa, needs slightly above 1,000 people to meet the threshold. Areas such as Kiambaa and Kabete with 253,751 and 265,829 people respectively may have part of their territories carved out to create a new constituency.

At the Coast, only five constituencies are within the limits prescribed in the Constitution, seven have populations that surpass the upper limit, while nine have numbers below the lower limit. Other than Lamu East, which has 18,841 people, the rest of the constituencies are just slightly below the required number.

A section of Garsen may be carved out, added to Lamu West and the border of Lamu East pushed towards the west in order to be more equitable. Lamu is a key area of the Coast Province with the proposed construction of the second sea port.

The alterations at the Coast are most likely to affect politics in Mombasa city, which has four constituencies. Likoni is within the threshold, Mvita is below by close to 10,000 people while Kisauni and Changamwe are above the limit by 219,537 and 95,886 respectively.

Likoni and Changamwe would, therefore, have to be split into two constituencies each with the former contributing part of its area to Mvita. In Eastern, 16 of the 36 constituencies fall within the ideal limits, 14 have populations above, while six will need additional numbers to meet the threshold.

The greatest challenge in reviewing Eastern Province boundaries will be in the northern part of North Horr, Saku, Laisamis and Moyale. Only Moyale has an ideal population size with the rest having numbers less than the threshold. North Horr, which is the largest constituency in terms of geographical size, needs an additional 20,000 people while Saku and Laisamis require 33,381 and 28,528 respectively.

In the Central Eastern area, only Siakago needs an additional population of about 10,000 people. This may be carved out of Nithi, which has an excess of 62,153 people. In the South Eastern area, a new constituency is likely to stem out of Mwingi North and Mwingi South, which have a combined population of 384,948.

Another one is likely to be carved out of Kathiani and Kangundo, which have a total population of 462,822. A third constitution in the region may arise from Makueni and Kibwezi, which have a total population of 492,023. A section of Makueni will also need to be carved out to add the close to 7,000 people needed to make Kilome ideal.

The North Eastern data, which has been challenged, shows that Mandera Central would need to be split at least two times to get to the ideal population. Additional constituencies would also have to be carved out of Dujis, Lagdera, Wajir East, Mandera East and Mandera West, which all have excess populations.

In Nyanza, none of the constituencies is below the limit, 19 are ideal while 13 have populations above the required numbers. The alterations in Kisumu will mostly affect constituencies that are outside what is commonly known as Luo-Nyanza. Since no constituency needs additional numbers, the boundaries commission will use more than a single constituency to carve out new ones.

Four constituencies in the Rift Valley are below the threshold, 16 are within, while 29 have excess population. Four constituencies – Turkana North (374,414), Eldoret North (391,655), Naivasha (376,243) and Kajiado North (387,538) – have populations double the maximum threshold, meaning that they can be split at least two times.

The Central Rift Valley is likely to have the greatest alterations due to its cosmopolitan nature and definitely affecting politics in the region. Several constituencies will be created by carving out sections of existing ones. Samburu East and Mogotio, which are among those below the threshold, are surrounded by constituencies that cannot be carved out. This promises to be one of the greatest challenges for the IIBRC.