How the political landscape will change in 2012

Political analysts and lawyers agree the splitting of the constituencies will definitely change the political landscape come 2012.

A majority also agree the exercise to be conducted by the Boundaries Commission will disadvantage some of the sitting MPs and favour others.

According to lawyer Kipchumba Murkomen, the political landscape will definitely change, depending on which tribe or region gains in terms of new constituencies.

“Since Kenyan elections are influenced heavily by ethnicity, the tribe or region that gains more constituencies might use their power of numbers in Parliament to influence debate and push Bills,” said Murkomen.

The lawyer added if the President has the support of majority MPs in Parliament, his or her work would be made easy.

He said the split might also be in favour of some political parties predominant in certain regions, increasing their influence in the National Assembly and Senate.

“Nominations to the Senate and National Assembly will be based on political party strength, hence the splitting of constituencies might be an advantage to some political parties,” Mr Murkomen added.

University of Nairobi lecturer Adams Oloo says the new boundaries will not only affect those representing rural areas but also legislators in towns.

“In cities there are constituencies where certain tribes always have the head-start in the General Election. This might change when the constituencies are split and we might see some sitting MPs shifting base,” Dr Oloo said.

The sentiments were also shared by Prof Frank Matanga, a lecturer at Masinde Muliro University, and Lawyer John Waiganjo who said the split might negatively affect some sitting MPs, if a portion of their support base is curved out and transferred to another constituency.

According to Mr Waiganjo, elections in Kenya are rarely based on popular mandate but on tribe, clan or the region one comes from, “and these factors will determine one’s survival if the splitting is done”.

“Others also have long-running rivalry with their competitors that have never been resolved for years and all this will determine one’s survival after the redrawing of political boundaries,” said Waiganjo.

However, lawyer Katwa Kigen differed saying sitting politicians will have an advantage as they will choose where to vie. “Many will look at the mathematics and decide where to vie based on where their support base is,” said Mr Kigen.

Prof Matanga urged the boundaries commission to conduct the exercise fairly and desist from any sort of manipulation by politicians. “Population and geography should be some of the predominant factors in the redrawing of boundaries,” he added.