Joy as the world waits to welcome the youngest African state
The party of the decade will erupt in Juba this Saturday when Southern Sudan officially becomes the world’s newest state.
The independence July 9 of South Sudan is seen by analysts as possibly the most significant development in modern African history since the end of apartheid nearly two decades ago.
It will be a symbolic turning point in the long running conflict in Sudan that has cost more lives than any other since the Second World War. It will result in the breakup of Africa’s largest country and significantly alter the political and economic boundaries of the East African Community, the continent’s most cohesive regional bloc.
“This is a truly historic moment,” said Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, one of the key mediators during talks in and near Nairobi that resulted in an agreement on a referendum for self-determination. “Not many generations live to see the birth of a new nation.
It is a delight for Kenya to welcome the new state to the East African Community where she will naturally find a home.”
They will be partying in many capitals across the world, too, from Nairobi to Kampala to Washington to Sydney where hundreds of Southern Sudanese took refuge from the many years of war that took up to a million lives.
Serving in the bush
Head of Southern Sudan mission in Kenya Michael Majok Ayom, who took a bullet in the thigh while serving in the bush with John Garang’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army, will be one of those celebrating the new dawn.
“This has a lot of meaning to me and many other freedom fighters,” he said.
“Our objective when we went to war was to have a Sudan where all people are treated the same. One side did not share that goal, and we felt ultimately that independence was the only way we could have a just society.”
The economic potential of the new state is immense. Southern Sudan holds the bulk of oil deposits in the country.
According to the North, the revenue from oil in the last six years has been on average about US$2 billion per year (about Sh172 billion) although the South insists those estimates are routinely revised downwards to deny them their rightful share of oil revenue.
Southern Sudan also abounds in untapped natural resources.
It has significant gold deposits and is traversed by a large section of the White Nile. It also has some of the best unexploited tourist attractions in Africa and has a great wildebeest migration similar to the one that draws thousands of tourists to Kenya and Tanzania every year.
The country has rich agricultural land that, according to estimates, could feed most of sub-Saharan Africa if properly exploited. Its agricultural resources are also being eyed by international investors seeking to engage in the biofuel industry.
This unexploited economic potential is seen as likely to have a huge effect on the economies of neighbouring countries.
“I am resolutely bullish about the prospects of Southern Sudan,” said investment banker and analyst Aly-Khan Satchu.
“This is a potential game changer, and Kenya is well positioned to benefit. Kenya’s economy rides on the coattails of its neighbours.
and the independence of Southern Sudan coupled with the discovery of oil in Uganda means the economy will never be the same again.
Uganda’s expected revenue from oil is 20 times more than their current gross domestic product, while Southern Sudan presents massive opportunities.”
Yet the potential for economic transformation is somewhat clouded by fears of a possible return to conflict between the North and the South.
President Omar al-Bashir’s government in the North finds itself in an increasingly weakened position as it faces up to the prospect of Southern independence.
At midnight on Saturday, the North will lose a third of the territory that now comprises Sudan and 80 per cent of the confirmed oil deposits in the country.
The declaration of independence will be a major victory for Southern forces that have fought on and off since 1956 to be freed from their Northern Muslim neighbour that is essentially viewed as a colonial power in their territory.
The al-Bashir regime has reacted in recent weeks to the prospect of independence by escalating tensions in the border areas between the North and South. A campaign of violence in the region has displaced 73,000 people, according to the United Nations.
Northern forces now occupy the volatile frontier province of Abyei. They have sent planes to bomb the Nuba Mountains and the Blue Nile areas that are technically in the North but whose population’s loyalties lie with the South due to their shared ethnic roots with Southern neighbours.
Suppress any revolts
According to a report by the International Crisis Group, the Khartoum government is using violence in a bid to rally the domestic constituency to unite behind it.
“The (National Congress Party) has mobilised its security apparatus to suppress any revolts, has decided to end the debate about Sudan’s diversity and identity, remains committed to an Arab-Islamic identity for all Sudanese and keeping Sharia and is ready to sub-divide key states to accommodate political barons.
These are ad-hoc decisions that set the stage for continued violence that may not be containable and could lead to further fragmentation of the country,” the ICG report notes.
The report says the new state in the North will be weak and divided, which could undermine its relations with the South.
“The remainder of the country remains saddled with the ‘Sudan Problem’, where power, resources and development continue to be overly concentrated in the centre, at the expense of and to the exasperation of the peripheries.
A ‘new south’ is emerging in the hitherto transitional areas of Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile that – along with Darfur, the East and other marginal areas – continues to chafe under the domination of the NCP. Unless their grievances are addressed by a more inclusive government, Sudan risks more violence and disintegration.”
What is inescapable is that the South and the North will have to cooperate.
While the oil deposits are found in the South, the North built the refinery plants in its territory meaning oil production would grind to a halt in the event both parties cannot agree. Southern hopes are that the construction of the a second poart in Lamu, which is yet to begin despite years of proclamations from the Kenya Government, would open up an alternative export route.
Mr Musyoka says leaders in the North and the South should recognise the need to work together. “It is critical that even as the Republic of South Sudan comes into being it maintains cordial relations with the Sudan. A peaceful neighbour is important if you are to achieve development within a short time. Resource sharing will be more conducive in an environment of good neighbourliness.”
Mr Majok says the South will invest considerably in diversifying its economy to reduce its dependence on oil. He says the region would intensify efforts to become integrated into the East African economy to cushion itself against potential conflicts with its northern neighbour.
Already, Kenyan and Ugandan businesses have a huge presence in Southern Sudan.
Major banks like Equity and KCB have numerous branches in the region.
Many construction firms have expanded their operations to the area, and Kenyan businessmen have constructed hotels along the Nile to take advantage of the tide of investors and international aid agencies establishing a presence in the new state.
Kenya Airways, Fly 540 and Jetlink all fly daily flights to Juba while thousands of Kenyan professionals are working in various areas in the region.
Yet despite the huge economic potential of Southern Sudan much work lies ahead as the country tries to build new institutions and become a fully functional state.
Mr Satchu says Southern Sudan is entering the building of statehood from the “basement rather than the ground floor”, in reference to its relatively low levels of development which means it will need all the help it can get.
The South will also have to grapple with the challenge of building internal cohesion in a vast region populated by diverse ethnic groups.
The possibility of some of the groups in the South taking up arms to destabilise the state remains a real one.
Yet in a sense all these challenges pale in comparison to the historic nature of the events that will unfold in Juba on Saturday as Southern Sudan officially becomes the Republic of South Sudan, the world’s 193rd state and Africa’s 54th.
“Every country has problems, and once we achieve independence, we will deal with these issues just as those other countries do,” said Mr Majok. “But we must not lose sight of what a historic occasion this is. Hundreds of thousands of lives were lost to achieve independence. It is a moment when all that sacrifice will finally achieve a tangible goal.”
