Kenya faces food crisis, warns report

Countries at extreme risk: African nations make up 36 of the 50 nations most at risk in the index, and nine of the 10 nations at extreme risk

Kenya is among the countries most at risk from soaring food prices and shortages, a new report from a UK-based risk management consultancy company shows.

Maplecroft’s  Food Security Index, which was released this week, says the Central and Eastern African region is one of the most vulnerable to future food problems worldwide.

Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are listed as “High risk” in the report, while Ethiopia, Sudan and Eritrea are listed as at “extreme risk”. The Food Security Risk Index 2010 evaluates the risks to the supply of basic food staples for 163 countries.

It uses 12 criteria developed in collaboration with the World Food Programme, to calculate the ranking, including the nutritional and health status of populations, cereal production and imports, GDP per capita, natural disasters, conflict, and the effectiveness of government.

The report says sharp price increases for wheat and other grains will hit the poorest countries hardest. Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to food insecurity because of the frequency of extreme weather events, high rates of poverty and failing infrastructures, which decrease production and distribution capacity.

Conflict is also a major driver of food insecurity and the ongoing violence in Afghanistan and DR Congo is largely responsible for the precarious food security situation in both countries. “Russian brakes on exports, plus a reduction in Canada’s harvest by almost a quarter due to flooding in June, are provoking fluctuations in the commodity markets.

This will further affect the food security of the most vulnerable countries” said Ms Fiona Place, an environmental analyst at Maplecroft.

Prof Alyson Warhurst, CEO of Maplecroft, adds: “Food security is a critical geopolitical issue and an important factor for investors concerned with sovereign risk, food and agricultural business with respect to supply chain integrity and foreign direct investments.”

Maplecroft says climate change is having a profound effect on global food security. The heat wave in Russia (115 and medium risk) has come at the same time as devastating floods in Pakistan, which will have long term effects on the country’s food security.

The Food Security Risk Index is one component of Maplecroft’s Resource Security Series of indices, which also encompass, water security, energy security and a combined index for overall resource security.

Economists are already warning that the world will face price rises in staples such as bread following Russia’s ban on wheat exports and other staple crops are also set to increase over the next 12 months.