There is more to population decline in Central than alcohol

Hit by the Mututho alcohol law, hundreds of young men from Central Kenya are waking up from their drunken stupor to find the beautiful girls are either long gone or do not want children.

Once sober, the young men and their leaders may want to take a serious look at the recent national census report to appreciate that the current population characteristics in the region go far beyond the men’s perceived incapacity to procreate.

The census and accompanying documents may also go a long way in explaining why a Sh500 enticement for women to get pregnant by a local councillor may not find many takers.

Councillor Habel Kijana Mutahi of Giathugu Ward in Mukurwe-ini, has promised to award Sh500 for every pregnancy and Sh2,000 for each birth because of what he calls a population crisis born of excessive drinking.

The councillor was reacting to the census which indicated that Central Province had the lowest population growth rate in 10 years.

But prior documents informing on the census report points to a succeeding family planning uptake and a failed centralised government which has encouraged huge rural–urban migration.

Released months before the census report, the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, carried out by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics indicated the region has the highest use of contraceptives.

“Women in Central Province continue to have the highest contraceptive prevalence rate at 67 per cent,” says the report. This is followed at a distance second by Nairobi at 55 per cent and Eastern Province at 52 per cent.

The high level of contraceptive use, explains demographers, also represent higher number of women who don’t want another child, are sterilised or would want to delay the next pregnancy.

The region also has high infant survival rate, a factor the Kenya National Bureau of Standards says has been found to determine the desirability of another child.

“As the number of living children increases the desire to have another child decreases and vice versa.”

Education has also been found to have a big impact on the uptake of contraceptives.

According to the 2009 KDHS 60 per cent of women with secondary education were found to be using a contraceptives compared to 40 per cent with incomplete primary school education and only 14 per cent of those who never attended school. The highest literacy levels were observed among women in Nairobi and Central provinces (96 per cent and 95 per cent, respectively).

The bigger percentage of the educated in this group is actually the marriageable age.

This presents a double tragedy for the young men in Central who may be planning to bring forth a brood of children. The young, educated woman may not want more than two children or she may not be eligible to marry in the village and opt to migrate to urban areas in search of employment.

According to Economic Planning secretary Stephen Wainaina, there has been an increase of female migrants from rural to urban areas in the last two decades.

In a statement to the UN Commission on Population and Development, he says the rural urban migration has been dominated by Nairobi, which is four times bigger than the next largest urban centre — Mombasa.

A study published in the Public Medical Journals and looking into the female rural to urban migration in eight African countries including Kenya concluded that single, better educated adult women in their 20s are more likely to move to urban areas. The study indicates proximity of the urban centre is a major determinant for female migration.

A study carried out in Nairobi slums to determine migration trends and published in the September issue of Journal of Demographic Research, concluded that more young females may be migrating to the city compared to men.

“One of the key findings of this study is the higher intensity of female migration compared to that of males, and the increasing contribution of females to the growth of the slum population,” says the study carried out by the Nairobi-based African Population Health Research Centre.

A lot of these girls may be found working in the expanding informal sector including domestic help to a burgeoning middle class, selling second-hand clothes and prostitution.

Initial reports of an ongoing census of prostitutes indicate there are more than 7,000 female prostitutes in the city centre each night. This population may be impacted by the Mututho law which dramatically cuts down on the bar opening hours. Bars are the main reservoirs for prostitution in the country.