War in Sudan too grave to contemplate

Seventy thousand Kenyans working in Sudan face the risk of returning home if a war erupts in the January referendum seeking to give autonomy to the South.

A report released by a coalition of European and African economic political think tanks shows that Kenya and her neighbour’s will not only face economic shock waves in the private sector, but they might also have to bear the costs of absorbing refugees.

The report titled “The cost of future Conflict in Sudan” says that $100 billion, equivalent to Sh8 trillion in costs would be spent if Sudan relapses into war in the 2011 referendum.

The report released a few weeks ago shows that Kenya could lose Sh926 billion in 10 years in case of an armed conflict between Southern Sudan and their northern counterparts. The losses could escalate six times if the war lasts for 25 years.

A significant number of Kenyan blue chip multinationals operating from Nairobi, small and medium scale entrepreneurs and skilled workers have been doing business in Southern Juba in a number of key sectors like financial services, transport, hospitality, manufacturing, infrastructure and telecommunications.

Kenyans working in various companies like the Kenya Commercial Bank, UAP Insurance and Bidco Oil Refineries, who have establishments in southern Sudan stand being rendered jobless if the war emerges.

Over the last five years since signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Nairobi in January 2005, Kenya has become the top source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Southern Sudan. KCB has 11 branches in South Sudan while UAP Insurance has four branches.

According to the report, losses are in the form of disrupted reconstruction contracts of Kenyan workers in Sudan. The report further shows that trade with reference to goods supply, service provision opportunities lie at stake for the country.

Based on the report, the overall cost of a conflict in Sudan to the neighbouring countries is about 34 per cent of their gross domestic product.
Key issues likely to spark conflict in Sudan according to the report are border demarcation disputes, oil sharing, and citizenship.

The crucial referendum will mark the end of the interim period of the 2005 CPA which brought an end to the 22-year-old civil conflict between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM).

Tensions between North and South have existed since colonial times with two civil wars in 1955-1972 and 1983-2005 leaving an estimated two million deaths and over four million displaced.

The North-South conflict has often been characterised as an ethnic conflict between the largely Arab, Muslim North and the predominantly African, Christian and Animist South.

The South and North have been trading accusations ahead of the January 9 vote, which has heightened tensions between Juba and Khartoum.

Analysts from the London-based consulting group Frontier Economics; a Nairobi-based Institute of Security Studies and the Society for International Development, a global network of development practitioners puts worry over the regions bordering Sudan in the event war erupts.

Underlying issues behind long standing conflict in the region are deeply driven by political and economic marginalisation of groups in the peripheral areas of the country which is also Africa’s largest with a population of 41 million citizens.

The report indicates that in the event of a low conflict scenario “Business As Usual”, where both sides accept the outcome of the referendum, Sudan will experience low intensity conflict in Darfur.

Additionally, estimates by the groups indicate that losses will be $11.5 billion for Kenya in case of a medium conflict scenario in the next 10 years compared to Ethiopia’s $11.2 billion and Uganda’s $6.3 billion.

This implies that an increase in skirmishes would be experienced in the country owing to issues of contention between the Northerners and Southerners. The report forecasts that Sudan is bound to experience a seven year civil war before renewed efforts bring peace.

As of the case of a high conflict scenario where south Sudan votes in favour of independence and north refuses to respect the result, Kenya will lose $18.3 billion in the next 10 years compared to $17.7 billion for Ethiopia and $10.1 billion for Uganda.

According to this scenario an escalation of violence is likely to be witnessed, which the report says could ignite fresh conflict projected to climax into extreme confrontation between government forces, the SPLM and other factions.

On the peace scenario, the report states: “If both sides accept the result of the referendum, a swift resolution of the outstanding issues of contention would be resolved.”

Hopes that the south and the north would use the interim period of the agreement to forge a relationship of mutual trust and friendship was short lived.