Road to S. Africa elections mined with fierce tussle

A ruling by the Independent Electoral Commission on March 2009 cleared Winne, still eulogise by many as the ‘Mother of the Nation’, to run in the General Election despite having a fraud conviction. This paves the way for her political comeback, seen as a ploy by the ANC to boost its grassroots performance.

But Zuma’s fierce knights are the unemployed youths in the ANC Youth League, led by its fiery President, Julius Malema. But Malema’s careless threat to “shoot and kill” for Zuma has provoked public outcry, and censure from the South Africa Human Rights Commission. Together with the fiery Cosatu secretary general, Zwelinzima Vavi, Malema and the ANC firebrands have attacked the Judiciary, particularly the Constitutional Court, as “Counter Revolutionary” in what is perceived as a renewed assault on democratic institutions.

ANC stalwarts like Pallo Jordan mooted the idea of a “third way” to unite the ANC and heal the nation. But Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale, touted as compromise candidates, were not sufficiently neutral, and have since lined their troops behind Zuma.

Also touted as a middle-of-the-way leader is the ANC party deputy president and left-leaning intellectual, Kgalema Motlanthe, now serving as president since 25 September 2008. But with Motlanthe unlikely to stake his claim to power and Zuma unlikely to yield to him, the only chance of Motlanthe remaining in power is if the ANC does not command a two thirds majority in the National assembly, and the house rejects Zuma as a candidate, forcing the party to nominate him as president.

The odds in the 2009 election are also stuck against South Africa’s feeble opposition. Plagued by lack of clear vision, tactics and infighting, former liberation movements like Robert Sobukwe’s Pan-African Congress (PAC) or Steve Biko’s Black Conscious Movement (BCM) cannot make significant inroads into the ANC turf.

Worse still, Bantu Holomisa’s United Democratic Movement (UDM) and Patricia De Lille’s Independent Democrats remain one-person show unable to make notable dents on the ANC dominance.

And the once formidable Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) of Mongosuthu Buthelezi will now fight it out with the leading Zulu son, Zuma, for the vote in Kwa Zulu Natal and Zulu hostels in Gauteng.

--------

Dr Kagwanja is the President of the Africa Policy Institute and the author of the recent book: State of the Nation: South Africa 2008 (Cape Town, 2009).