Ruling on Sudan oil-rich area of Abyei sets stage for next contest

In the aftermath of the ruling on Sudan’s oil-rich area of Abyei, things are beginning to feel more like the proverbial elephant as felt by the blind men. Each of the men reckons they know the shape of the elephant, depending on which part their fingers are holding.

So it was, hours after the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

“The verdict is out,” the Government of Southern Sudan minister for SPLA Affairs, Nhial Deng Nhial, declared to cheers at a public gathering to pray for Abyei, “and we have won the case.”

On the other hand, the agent for the Government of National Unity, Dirdiri Mohammed was saying they were ready to go to the Constitutional Court if SPLM so wished as to drag them there.

Inference: You lost. We won. Appeal if you may. With those analogous reactions, it became hard to know what constitutes a win. Or, even, a loss.

Does defining Abyei as the area of the Ngok Dinka Chiefdoms, as the 2005 peace agreement did, to the exclusion of the Misseriya, constitute a win? Does going away with tiny slice of the area, but which contains huge oil deposits, constitute a win?

It’s hard to say, but as some would say, even a loss is more relief – only the degree matters. For instance, within the intervening hours, at press conference, First Vice President of the Sudan, and Chairman of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, Salva Kiir, would sound more relieved than jubilant, asking the Dinka Ngok to accept a ruling that reduced the area they say they claim.

The ruling, Kiir said, more or less upholds the report of the Abyei Boundary Commission, which was issued in 2006.

“In my capacity as Chairman of the SPLM and President of the Government of Southern Sudan, I hereby declare to the people of Abyei, the entire membership of the SPLM, the people of Southern Sudan, the entire Sudanese nation and the International Community that the SPLM accepts the ruling that was handed down today at he Hague by the Tribunal on Abyei,” Kiir said. Yet, Kiir said, it was not a complete win.

Rare public address
“This is not to say that the decision has come wholly in favour of the SPLM,” Kiir said. “Far from it; indeed there are aspects of the decision that will be received with disappointment by the people of Abyei area, particularly when the full details begin to be absorbed. But we had given our word and by our word we will stand.”

It’s not a simple loss he’s talking about.

For instance, Heglig and Nyama were placed outside Abyei. Mention Heglig anywhere and oil comes to mind.

At least, the ruling brought to an end four years of ping-pong, sleepless nights, quarrels, and uncertainty over what would follow the area’s delimitation.

Sometime at the start of 2007, Douglas Johnson, one of the experts for the Abyei Boundaries Commission made a rare public press statement at the Government of Southern Sudan secretariat in Juba.

At the time, Johnson said he was searching the archives in Juba for any document he could lay his hand on to justify his case. Documents were scanty – thanks to war, termites and heat. Maps did not exist.