Ruling party win likely as Botswana set to vote

Sensing danger after the 1994 scare, the BDP hired South African political expert Professor Lawrence Schlemmer to save itself from what was seen as imminent defeat. The political guru recommended radical surgery and a purge of the old guard to give the party a new and youthful face.

The biggest casualty was then president Sir Ketumile Masire who had to step-down in 1998 with over a year to go before his term ended to give way to his younger vice-president, Mr Mogae. The biggest beneficiary was the youthful Khama, who was convinced to live his job as military chief to become Mogae’s vice-president and anointed heir.

As the BDP was putting its house in order to avert disaster, it received a much-needed boost from the enemy camp from the enemy camp. The BNF shot itself in the leg by undergoing another split in 1998 a year before elections.

The violent parting of ways saw the defection of 11 of the party’s 13 MPs to form the BCP, which became the official opposition but without the fanatical following of the BNF. The split was fatal and the opposition has never recovered from it.

As expected, the BDP easily reduced the number of opposition MPs in the 1999 election to increase its already healthy majority.

The seriously crippled BNF still managed to regain its status as the main opposition by capturing seven of the 40 parliamentary seats while the BCP got only one MP out of the 11 it inherited through defections from BNF.

The BNF stumbled along and seemed to have got a new lease of life when long-time party leader and founder, the late Dr Kenneth Koma and his allies were routed in party elections just ahead of the 2004 general elections. In a strange twist of events, Koma who survived many splits in the BNF organised one himself when he broke away with his group to form the now largely moribund National Democratic Front (NDF).

After the sensational ouster of Kanu in Kenya by a united opposition in the 2002 general elections, there was some hope in Botswana of a repeat. The 1999 general elections in Botswana had proved that in several constituencies the BDP won with very narrow margins and the combined BCP and BNF vote was overwhelming.

Ahead of the 2004 elections, the opposition tried to use these statistics and the Kenyan example to united and try to beat the BDP but things never worked because of the bitter rivalry between BCP and BNF. The BNF and BCP were forced to strike separated alliances with fringe parties and once again got walloped by the BDP.

Under the circumstances, the BNF did well and boosted its parliamentary strength from seven to 12, largely because the number of constituencies were increased from 40 to 57 ahead of the 2004 general elections. The BCP still remained a one MP party.

Statistics from the 2004 polls once again proved that an alliance between the BCP and BNF will make great impact and for sometime, the two parties came together and managed to win by-elections, mayoral elections and contests for chairperson of civic authorities.

Though the most chaotic party in Botswana, BNF commands a massive and fanatical following in the country. On the other hand, BCP is the best-organised and tranquil party in Botswana without the mass following enjoyed by BNF or BDP.

While the BNF is the darling of the opposition masses, it needs the numbers from the BCP to surmount the BDP political juggernaut. However, efforts to unite the two opposition ‘giants’ have collapsed when the BNF adopted a ‘Big Brother’ attitude while the BCP and fringe parties fear to be swallowed in an anti-BDP union.

The BNF sees itself as an established brand that others should join in the war against BDP. But the BCP and smaller parties prefer a lose alliance that will leave each party with its identify intact. These differences have made sure that attempts by the opposition to unite against the BDP have not borne fruit and once again, they go to the Friday elections in disarray.

A united opposition stood a chance against the BDP more so that the famed Khama magic seemed to have waned and his role as unifier of the party has become more divisive as events have shown since he was co-opted into politics.