Ruling party win likely as Botswana set to vote

GABORONE, Tuesday -- It is all systems go on Friday Africa’s oldest multiparty democracy, Botswana holds its 10th general elections since independence from Britain in 1966.

The Botswana Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has achieved a milestone by making arrangements to allow 1,641 voters based abroad to cast their ballot in advance on September 29.

But a similar exercise meant to cater for the 11,000 people involved in running the elections like IEC staff, state security officers and civil servants flopped after mistakes were discovered in the ballot papers.

With a population of about 1.9 million, Botswana currently has 723,617 registered voters, its highest number so far. There are 403, 056 female voters while men make up 320,561. The country has 490 polling districts and 2,288 polling stations.

Though 57 constituencies are up for grabs, the opposition will be hard-pressed to get even 15, despite the unprecedented high-level feuding in the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) that has ruled the country since independence. The feuding has led to a record number of party members standing as independent candidates known derisively as ‘mekoko’.

Once again, the BDP is the only party to field candidates in all the 57 constituencies. The main opposition, the Botswana National Front (BNF) will contest 48 constituencies while the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and its ally the Botswana Alliance Movement (BAM) will vie in 46 constituencies.

The country’s oldest political formation, the Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) will field six parliamentary candidates while Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin (MELS) Movement has four. The outgoing parliament had MPs from three parties and this is not expected to change unless the independents spring up an unlikely surprise.

After inheriting power from Mr Festus Mogae in April last year under the controversial automatic succession system where the vice-president takes over and completes the term in case of a vacancy at the presidency, Khama leads the BDP to national elections for the first time on Friday.

The Botswana president is facing two opponents, Messrs Otsweletse Moupo of the main opposition BNF and Gilson Saleshando of the BCP but the outcome of the elections like all others before is a foregone conclusion.

The BDP is going to deliver the usual thrashing to the opposition and form the next government. Botswana does not elect its president directly – the ceremonial task is performed by parliament – after every general elections.

With its overwhelming majority in parliament, the BDP has always had it easy ramming through is agenda in the legislature as the opposition twiddles its fingers in agony.

So rampant has been the BDP that it has run Botswana as a single party state. The question at every election is not whether the opposition will take power but the margin of the BDP win.

Though still unbeatable, BDP has been worried about the decline of its popular vote. In the coming elections, the party has set a target of garnering at least 70 per cent of the national vote.

The closest the opposition came to upsetting the BDP apple-cart was in the 1994 elections when the BNF won an all time high of 13 parliamentary seats out of the then 40 constituencies. After the feat, it was highly anticipated that the BNF will finish off the reeling BDP come the 1999 general elections.

But a combination of the BNF’s never-ending love for self-destruction and a panicking BDP’s bold political strategy made sure that the opposition was back to square one in both the 1999 and 2004 elections.

Sensing danger after the 1994 scare, the BDP hired South African political expert Professor Lawrence Schlemmer to save itself from what was seen as imminent defeat. The political guru recommended radical surgery and a purge of the old guard to give the party a new and youthful face.

The biggest casualty was then president Sir Ketumile Masire who had to step-down in 1998 with over a year to go before his term ended to give way to his younger vice-president, Mr Mogae. The biggest beneficiary was the youthful Khama, who was convinced to live his job as military chief to become Mogae’s vice-president and anointed heir.

As the BDP was putting its house in order to avert disaster, it received a much-needed boost from the enemy camp from the enemy camp. The BNF shot itself in the leg by undergoing another split in 1998 a year before elections.

The violent parting of ways saw the defection of 11 of the party’s 13 MPs to form the BCP, which became the official opposition but without the fanatical following of the BNF. The split was fatal and the opposition has never recovered from it.

As expected, the BDP easily reduced the number of opposition MPs in the 1999 election to increase its already healthy majority.

The seriously crippled BNF still managed to regain its status as the main opposition by capturing seven of the 40 parliamentary seats while the BCP got only one MP out of the 11 it inherited through defections from BNF.

The BNF stumbled along and seemed to have got a new lease of life when long-time party leader and founder, the late Dr Kenneth Koma and his allies were routed in party elections just ahead of the 2004 general elections. In a strange twist of events, Koma who survived many splits in the BNF organised one himself when he broke away with his group to form the now largely moribund National Democratic Front (NDF).

After the sensational ouster of Kanu in Kenya by a united opposition in the 2002 general elections, there was some hope in Botswana of a repeat. The 1999 general elections in Botswana had proved that in several constituencies the BDP won with very narrow margins and the combined BCP and BNF vote was overwhelming.

Ahead of the 2004 elections, the opposition tried to use these statistics and the Kenyan example to united and try to beat the BDP but things never worked because of the bitter rivalry between BCP and BNF. The BNF and BCP were forced to strike separated alliances with fringe parties and once again got walloped by the BDP.

Under the circumstances, the BNF did well and boosted its parliamentary strength from seven to 12, largely because the number of constituencies were increased from 40 to 57 ahead of the 2004 general elections. The BCP still remained a one MP party.

Statistics from the 2004 polls once again proved that an alliance between the BCP and BNF will make great impact and for sometime, the two parties came together and managed to win by-elections, mayoral elections and contests for chairperson of civic authorities.

Though the most chaotic party in Botswana, BNF commands a massive and fanatical following in the country. On the other hand, BCP is the best-organised and tranquil party in Botswana without the mass following enjoyed by BNF or BDP.

While the BNF is the darling of the opposition masses, it needs the numbers from the BCP to surmount the BDP political juggernaut. However, efforts to unite the two opposition ‘giants’ have collapsed when the BNF adopted a ‘Big Brother’ attitude while the BCP and fringe parties fear to be swallowed in an anti-BDP union.

The BNF sees itself as an established brand that others should join in the war against BDP. But the BCP and smaller parties prefer a lose alliance that will leave each party with its identify intact. These differences have made sure that attempts by the opposition to unite against the BDP have not borne fruit and once again, they go to the Friday elections in disarray.

A united opposition stood a chance against the BDP more so that the famed Khama magic seemed to have waned and his role as unifier of the party has become more divisive as events have shown since he was co-opted into politics.

The BNF is still expected to retain its status as the main opposition party though as usual, it has been rocked by internal feuding that is still raging. Its leader Mr Otsweletse Moupo has been beaten in party nominations and will not be defending his Gaborone West North parliamentary seat though he is in the presidential race. Under his watch, the party has experienced deep divisions and become moribund after he got weakened by scandals in his personal and professional life.

Though general elections in Botswana are free and fair, the opposition has always had its grouses about the shenanigans of the BDP in electioneering. Recently the opposition demanded that the date of the elections should be fixed by law and should not be left for the president to decide. They have called for direct election of the president and abolition of first past the post system in favour of proportional representation.

Over the years the opposition has loudly cried about the uneven playing field with the BDP in control of state media and huge resources from unnamed donors. The opposition has repeatedly called for state funding of political parties and equal access to media.

While government media has given the opposition coverage, state funding for political parties remain a dream.

Recently brewing giant, Kgalagadi Breweries Limited (KBL) took the unprecedented step of publicly donating P1 million to all political parties according to their strength in parliament.