Cote d’Ivoire on the brink of another civil war

The once peaceful Cote D’Ivoire may be on the brink of yet another civil war. It has hitherto experienced temporary peace after a drawn-out civil war caused by ethnic rivalry some years ago.

After exhausting various diplomatic avenues and with incumbent Laurent Gbagbo refusing to leave office peacefully, leaders from the region’s economic bloc — the Economic Community Of West African States (Ecowas) — now say they are left with no option but to deploy the Ecowas standby force to remove him and instal the legitimate and democratically elected president, Alassane Ouattara.

Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff Air Chief Marshall Oluseyi Petinrin said last Tuesday in Bamako that Ecowas troops may move into Cote d’Ivoire if negotiations and dialogue with Gbagbo fail.

Atmosphere of insecurity

“You are all aware that Ecowas Heads of State have given the people of Cote d’Ivoire all the opportunity to comply with what the whole world wants, which is for the winner of the election to take over,” said Air Chief Marshall Petinrin, who is also the chairman of Committee of Ecowas Chiefs of Defence Staff.

“Despite increasing international pressure as well as a series of Ecowas and African Union diplomatic initiatives, there is still no visible progress in resolving the crisis. In the prevailing atmosphere of insecurity, some Ivoirians are reported to have lost their lives while others have been forced to seek refuge in neighbouring countries,” he added.

Analysts say the military chief may be speaking for Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan, who is also the chairman of Ecowas.

This, they say, is because military intervention may be the best option for Jonathan, especially in a year in which he is seeking re-election.

“Jonathan is not the one taking the decision for Ecowas. Such a decision will be voted for by Ecowas Heads of State. If a majority of leaders vote in support of military intervention, then military intervention it is,” Mr Godwin Nnanna, a political analyst, says.

Already, Ghanaian president John Atta Mills has declared that he is not in support of military intervention. This has generated huge debate in Ghana, with opposition leaders accusing the president of incompetence.

However, other Ecowas members seem to be in support of forcefully removing Gbagbo. They sent presidents Pedro Pires of Cape Verde, Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone and Yayi Boni of Benin to urge Gbagbo to leave office quietly.

And Nnanna explains that the use of military intervention in Cote d’Ivoire will not be the first.

“A case in point is that of Liberia,” he states. “Charles Taylor was asked to leave power and he was offered asylum in Nigeria. The same hand of fellowship had been offered to Gbagbo by Jonathan. The United States has even offered him a top job at the UN in Washington. When all these fail, Ecowas will have no choice but to forcefully remove Gbagbo.”

Vincent Eboigbe, another political analyst, is of the opinion that a majority of Nigerians will support the forceful removal of Gbagbo since they are also hoping for a free and fair election in April.

Already, some Nigerians residing in Cote d’Ivoire have become victims of the political uprising.

Air Chief Marshall Petinrin said that the security situation is equally untenable for citizens of other Ecowas states who are resident in Cote d’Ivoire .

Therefore, he said, it is a matter of great concern to regional leaders that normalcy is restored and sustained in Cote d’Ivoire as soon as possible.

Workable and lasting solution

“We cannot relent in our efforts to help the Ecowas political leadership find a workable and lasting solution to this seemingly intractable political impasse. Most Ecowas countries have already contributed troops to this force. It is these troops that will eventually move into Cote d’Ivoire if there is no success,” he said.

Bmahamare Toure, Ecowas commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, says there is too much at stake in Cote d’Ivoire.

“We agree that people are dying there, but there is a possibility of dialogue. That is why the chairman of the commission said if there is possibility of a 0.01 per cent of dialogue, he will take it possibility before resorting to military action,” he says.

However, power-sharing may not be an option for Gbagbo because the two African countries — Kenya and Zimbabwe — in which the system is being practised are not finding it smooth sailing.