Tension as Egypt rejects new deal for Nile water

• Upstream countries hope to end pact that gives lion’s share of resources to Cairo

Climate change and rising sea levels could also swallow much of the slim, fertile Nile Delta in Egypt, already the world’s largest wheat importer, and cost it $35 billion this century, the United Nations has estimated.

Large-scale projects reclaiming arid land or building dams in upstream nations could further strain water use in Egypt, while increased upstream farming could bring more pollution.

But even if upstream countries ink the new deal, which could take place as early as May 14, they may not have the financial muscle in the near term to build dams and other projects that would allow them to siphon more water from the Nile.

“Practically, even if those countries sign a framework agreement without Egypt, its effects won’t be lasting ...how are (upstream countries) going to stop the flow of water?” said Safwat Abdel-Dayem, secretary general of the Arab Water Council.

Global donors and banks could be unlikely, for one, to provide the finance needed to build upstream water projects for fear of getting tangled in a regional diplomatic spat.

Analysts say a new treaty could nonetheless boost investments in African nations’ land reclamation projects, and help attract foreign investment in upstream farmland.

“It would seem that a new deal, provided it covers an extended period and is enforceable, could be good for potential investors,” said Aziza Akhmouch, an analyst with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

“It would reduce current uncertainty about the future availability of water.” (Reuters)