What a break-up would mean to the Sudanese and Africa

• Southerners and neighbouring countries look forward to a whole new economic and geographic landscape as President Bashir warns of a possible return to war if the South takes over the oil-rich Abyei region

Benjamin Madut was barely into his teens when the second Sudan civil war broke out.

He remembers everyone in his family fleeing in different directions as the Sudanese air force bombarded his village near the North-South border.

When the bombing subsided, villagers gathered in groups and trekked for days until they reached Ethiopia. Families were divided as those old enough to fight returned to join the war on the Southern side and others died from their wounds or from hunger as they made the long journey to refugee camps.

Mr Madut was one of the lucky ones. He survived and came to Kenya before being moved to the United States as one of the tens of thousands of “Lost Boys of Sudan” who were the subject of a 2003 documentary film of the same title.

On Sunday he will be one of the 3.9 million registered Southern Sudanese voters who will cast their votes in polling centres in eight countries across four continents in a pivotal referendum on self-determination.

“People are very excited to witness this dawn,” he said. “We are anxious to vote. Personally, I feel grateful and privileged that this happened in my lifetime, and, God willing, I will tell my grandchildren that I was one of those that took part in this process.”

Across Southern Sudan that feeling will be shared by thousands of people who will vote in a referendum whose results some analysts say will give way to the most important political transformation on the continent since the end of apartheid two decades ago.

There is little doubt that Southerners will vote to secede as officials of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) focus their efforts on achieving a decisive win.

The break-up

That vote to separate will have major consequences. It will lead to the break-up of Africa’s biggest state and the world’s tenth-largest country. It will also fundamentally alter the economic and geographical landscape of the East African Community, in which Southern Sudan has already applied for observer status.

But a return to war – especially if the North and South fail to thrash out key post-referendum issues – could also be vastly costly, with one aid agency estimating the cost to the region at $100 billion.

That is an outcome regional players such as Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Egypt and others like the US and China will be anxious to prevent.

Kenya’s Foreign Affairs permanent secretary Patrick Wamoto told the Sunday Nation he was optimistic the transition would be peaceful.

“The registration process has gone remarkably well, and it is encouraging that the pronouncements of leaders from both sides have been largely positive. This is a vast country with major infrastructure challenges, but from all indications I would say there is every sign that the vote will meet the threshold of a fair referendum,” the PS said.

Border demarcation

Mr Wamoto said Kenya would engage the two parties to resolve crucial post-referendum issues such as border demarcation, citizenship rights and the fate of the Abyei region.

The decision on Abyei will be especially contentious because it is claimed by both sides and is rich in oil and populated by both the South-leaning Dinka and the Misseriya Arabs.

On Friday Sudan President Omar al- Bashir said if the South took over the Abyei region it would risk a return to war. But the South points to multiple international arbitration decisions that have given it the right to the region.