Egypt against Sudan referendum over Nile fears

Picture shows a general view of the Nile river in Cairo. AFP / PHOTO

Egypt does not want to see a divided Sudan after the January 9, 2011 referendum fearing an independent South will threaten its stranglehold on the River Nile waters, a leaked US embassy cable has revealed.

In the cables published by online whistleblower WikiLeaks, Egypt had even asked the US government to help postpone the referendum by four to six years.

The four to six years proposed by Egypt would have been enough to deal with the sticky issues of water security in the Nile Co-operative Framework Agreement that has got the approval of five states.

The position is radically divergent from that of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) which on behalf of African Union has been pushing the Sudan parties to adhere to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and hold the referendum next year as scheduled.

Kenya currently chairs the Igad sub-committee on Sudan and recently convened a Summit to seek commitments of a peaceful referendum exercise from the parties involved.

Reacting to the leaks, south Sudan referendum official John Andruga Duku responded that the people of South Sudan “cannot be held hostage by what the likes of Egypt think.”

In the cable, written last year, a foreign ministry official urged the US to help postpone a referendum on independence for Southern Sudan.

The Egypt’s intelligence has also stressed the North African state’s desire for a united Sudan and cessation of hostilities with neighbouring Chad.

BBC reported that the foreign ministry official said the creation of “a non-viable state” could threaten Egypt’s access to the River Nile.

Cairo’s Almasry Alyoum newspaper published the cable, one of thousands being released by Wikileaks.

Southern Sudan is due to vote in a referendum on independence on January 9, 2011.

But in the cable - from the US embassy in Cairo - the official talks of implications should south Sudan secede and concern is expressed about the River Nile - a lifeline for Egypt.

Egypt has in the past threatened to go to war with any country tampering with the Nile.

The official said the creation of “a non-viable state” could threaten Egypt’s access to the Nile at a time when several countries are negotiating how to share the river’s water.

The official presses the US to help postpone the referendum by four to six years.

During an April 2009 meeting with US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen, an Egyptian General Intelligence Service official said his country was “very concerned” with stability in Sudan, and was focusing efforts on convincing the Chadean and Sudanese presidents to stop supporting each others’ insurgencies, supporting negotiations between factions in Darfur, and implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

The official added that “Southern Sudan feels no benefits from unity and Egypt is trying to bridge the physiological gap between north and south itself by providing humanitarian assistance.”

“Egypt does not want a divided Sudan,” the intelligence official stressed.

Egypt clearly fears a new nation, Southern Sudan, would be more likely to side with the upstream countries of the Nile basin like Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia.

Those countries believe a colonial era treaty which guarantees that Egypt receives most of the Nile water is unfair.

Egypt and Sudan are refusing to sign up to the CFA which has been signed by Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia. Burundi and DR Congo are the other riparian states yet to append their signatures to the new treaty.

The new agreement was opened for signature in May 2010 for a period of one year until May13, 2011. 

The fact that south Sudan is oil rich is seen as a major reason for tension ahead of the referendum on independence.

However, some argue that the vital water resource is likely to be a far greater bone of contention in the region long after the oil wells have dried up.

Wikileaks has so far released more than 683 of 251,000 classified US diplomatic and military cables.

The site is now up again following a series of cyber attacks on Thursday, ejection from its server host and cancellation of its name by its American domain name provider.

Wikileaks shifted to a new Swiss domain name; Wikileaks.ch.