Poll: Kenya could face run-off

The country would go for a presidential run-off if an election were to be held today, an opinion poll shows.

This is because none of the presumed presidential candidates would garner more than half of total votes cast as outlined in the new Constitution.

Synovate Pan-Africa notes that it is unlikely that if a presidential election is held today there would be a clear winner in a poll conducted between 7-9 February.

Whereas Prime Minister and leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Mr Raila Odinga, still remains the most preferred candidate for the top seat, his rating has fallen to 34 per cent from the previous 39 per cent in another survey that was carried out by the same research firm.

Finance minister and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta takes the second slot at 16 per cent meaning that he would face Mr Odinga in the run-off where only the first and second candidates go into the second round of voting.

Other hopefuls include Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka (8 per cent), Martha Karua (7 per cent), William Ruto (6 per cent) and Eugene Wamalwa (2 per cent).

If President Kibaki was to run , he would only get one per cent of the vote the same margin as Speaker of the National Assembly Kenneth Marende and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth.

“Even within their home provinces, ethnic identity fails to produce anything close to unanimous support,” said Synovate managing director George Waititu.

For instance, support for Uhuru Kenyatta and Martha Karua combined constitute just 54 per cent in Central province while in Nyanza Raila Odinga attracts 62 percent.

In Eastern Province, Kalonzo Musyoka earns just 21 percent, and in Rift Valley, William Ruto was chosen by just 12 percent.

Finer analysis of the data in Rift Valley Province where Kalenjin constitute about 40 per cent of the population showed that Mr Odinga was about twice as popular there – at 24 percent- compared to Mr Ruto.

The new Constitution demands that a candidate must obtain at least 25 per cent of the votes in at least half of the 47 counties.

Mr Waititu notes that this fact further underpins the argument that it appears likely that if presidential elections were held now a second round, run-off contest, would be required.

It is yet to be known how many candidates there will be, who these people will be and who their deputy-president running-mates will be or which political party alliances will underpin them.

“Therefore, no clear prediction about a presidential election outcome could be made even if one named potential candidate did appear to meet this first-round threshold in such a poll.”

In terms of political parties, ODM (with 35 per cent) retains a clear lead from earlier polls.

But in reality, Mr Waititu notes that this result is muddled by the fact that in actual, current politics, ODM has split into two ‘wings’.

“There is that of Mr Odinga (and allies), and that of Mr Ruto (and allies).”

“As such, it is unclear how much this figure would change if these two groupings formally separate, and whether this occurs in the context of a presidential candidate nominations shortly before election campaigns begin, or some time prior to that.”

He adds that such general uncertainty is underscored by the relatively high figure of “none” (32 per cent), suggesting just how much Kenyans align with parties on the basis of presidential aspirants as opposed to more deeply-rooted policy or ideological differences  which appears minimal.

Over time, however, ODM now stands at a decidedly lower level than it had last October (48 per cent), though only slightly lower than last December (38 per cent).

For its part, Party of National Unity remains statistically constant as compared with its standing last December (18 per cent).