Poll: Youth to play pivotal role in 2012 election

Kenyan youth will form the bulk of voters in the 2012 General Election making them a key constituency for presidential hopefuls.

Their votes will account for nearly three quarters of voters expected to elect Kenya's fourth president later in the year.

In an opinion poll released Wednesday by Insight Strategy Solution (ISS), 50.60 per cent of the voters would be youth between the age of 18 to 19. Another 32.80 per cent will comprise of an age group between 30 to 39 years.

The age group between 40 to 49 years will take a share of 11.40 of the votes while the ages of 50 to 59 will constitute 3.70 per cent.

Ages 60 to 69 will take 0.90 per cent while 0.10 per cent are projected to be people of 70 years and above.

ISS research director Idy Pembere said it was evident from their survey that youths would control the poll, which will be conducted by Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission headed by chairman Ahmed Isaack Hassan.

“It is evident from our finding that most of our respondents were relatively young people who will have a bigger say in the coming general election,” Mr Pembere said of the survey that sampled 2,300 people. 

Prime Minister Raila Odinga is still the most preferred presidential candidate with 34.70 per cent while his deputy  Uhuru Kenyatta stands at 30.10 per cent in the survey done between December 12, 2011 to January 2, 2012.

In the first survey on October 1 to 23, 2011, Mr Odinga’s rating was 38 per cent while Mr Kenyatta’s was 24 per cent. 

Mr Pembere said Mr Odinga’s popularity has dipped mainly due to the saga surrounding his former advisor Miguna Miguna and the controversy involving the Kazi Kwa Vijana programme.

“The recent ODM wrangles have made Mr Odinga’s popularity to dip also,” Mr Pembere said.

He said Mr Kenyatta's Hague case had won him some sympathy votes.

“The consolidation of Kanu which was on the verge of collapse recently has also made him to gain,” he said.

If the polls are called today, Mr Pembere said Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka will come third with 8.20 per cent while Eldoret North MP William Ruto will come fourth with 5.70 per cent.

Gichugu MP Martha Karua will be placed fifth with 3.70 per cent while Internal Security minister George Saitoti will be sixth with 2.60 per cent.

Planning Assistant minister Peter Kenneth will be seventh at 1.60 per cent while the others will share 2.70 per cent of the votes. 8.80 per cent of the voters are still undecided.

Mr Pembere said ODM was still the most popular party followed by PNU Alliance.

“The favourite political party was ODM at 37.3 per cent but closely followed by PNU at 35.0 per cent,” he said.

He said self employed people, who are about half of the voters, will have a big say on the next State House occupant.

“Majority of the respondents are self employed. The unemployment rate is high which shows that unemployment needs to be tackled as an entity,” Mr Pembere said.

He said Kenya’s population is politically active at about 86 per cent while the dormant one is about 11 per cent only.

“The general perspective of the sampled population is politically active. This shows that awareness level of the country is high and presidential candidates should tackle real issues and not dwell on propaganda,” Mr Pembere said.

He said about 83 per cent of the registered voters will participate in the coming polls.