Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Poll: Uhuru, Mudavadi would beat PM in run-off

Ipsos-Synovate managing director Margaret Ireri when she released findings of an opinion poll October 2 2012, in Nairobi. The survey showed that Prime Minister Raila Odinga would lose the presidential race if he comes up against his deputies in a run-off.

Ipsos-Synovate managing director Margaret Ireri when she released findings of an opinion poll October 2 2012, in Nairobi. The survey showed that Prime Minister Raila Odinga would lose the presidential race if he comes up against his deputies in a run-off.   PHOEBE OKALL/NATION MEDIA GROUP

By DAVE OPIYO [email protected]

lliPrime Minister Raila Odinga would lose the presidential race if he comes up against his deputies in a run-off, a new opinion poll shows.

The Ipsos Synovate poll says Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi would both defeat the PM in the event that the country fails to get an outright winner in the first round of the elections set for March 4 next year.

The failure by any of the presidential candidates to meet the constitutional threshold of 50 percent plus one of all votes cast in the first round of elections is the main factor that will precipitate a run-off.

In the survey released Tuesday, Mr Kenyatta, The National Alliance (TNA) presidential hopeful will win the contest against the PM, garnering 50 percent of the votes cast against Mr Odinga’s 42 percent. 

In a similar survey conducted in April this year, both Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta were neck and neck at 44 percent in a second round of voting.

And in a duel between Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi of the United Democratic Forum, the survey says the Sabatia MP would triumph with a slim margin of three points.

The former Local Government minister would garner 47 percent of the vote against Mr Odinga's 44 percent.

In both scenarios eight percent of the voters would be undecided.

Swing run-off

In an earlier survey, PM had a narrow lead against Mr Mudavadi with the former amassing 43 percent whilst the latter garnering 41 percent.

"The proportion of undecided voters remains high and this means that should they decide, they can swing the run-off either way,” said Synovate’s managing director Maggie Ireri while releasing the findings of the poll conducted between September 24 and 28.

It had a sample size of 2,229 respondents.

"Based on our findings, key determinants of either round one or two elections are likely to be dependent on the actual presidential candidates whose names end up on the ballot paper, declaration of running mate by the aspirants and clear pre-election alliances that the electorate identify with," she said.

According to Ms Ireri, the PM still remains the most preferred presidential candidate with 36 percent of Kenyans saying they will vote for him.

Mr Odinga is closely followed by Mr Kenyatta at 30 pc, Mr Mudavadi (seven percent),  Eldoret North MP William Ruto (six percent), Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka (five percent) and Martha Karua (three percent).

ODM has also retained the tag of the most popular political party, with 35 percent of the respondents supporting it.

There is also significant support for TNA (27 percent), the United Republican Party (six percent), ODM Kenya/Wiper (four percent).

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