Calls for Hague trials mask politicians’ selfish agenda

The falling out in the ODM between party leader Raila Odinga and Agriculture Minister William Ruto has been subject of many interpretations. One characteristic of the explanations has been their odd vagueness. But without doubt, the rift has nothing to do with airy claims about party “democracy” or even the Mau Forest.

As a matter of fact, the Prime Minister’s problems with Mr Ruto’s Rift Valley followers long predate the plan to evict the Mau settlers. The differences come down to the PM’s early support for the International Criminal Court and a local special tribunal, in punishing those responsible for the post-election killings.

As with the PM, President Kibaki has to consider not only the ramifications to his PNU party of whether or not to push the ICC process to fruition; he has to think as well of the consequences for the Grand Coalition Government, whose six Cabinet ministers were identified by the Waki Commission as masterminds of the violence.

Kibaki’s legacy

President Kibaki is not up for re-election and, on the face of it, has less to lose from how the ICC will want to deal with the skeletons the Waki List dug up. But the reality is such that the implications for the President’s ambivalence in ensuring justice is done for the victims is going to affect him in a more serious and permanent way— his legacy.

Mr Odinga is not alone in seeming to realise that accountability for what happened last year is something that cannot be wished away at the altar of political party loyalties. Even Internal Security minister George Saitoti has lately gone on record to endorse the ICC process.

It is possible, as speculation has had it, that these two could be taking advantage of the likelihood of the ICC issuing indictments against their rivals to entrench their positions in their respective parties. It looks entirely conceivable that similar calculations have not been far from ODM deputy leader Musalia Mudavadi’s mind. On the other hand, the agitated responses from Rift Valley politicians affirm the grave threat they perceive from the ICC intervention.

Minister’s blackmail

Within the Cabinet, Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo’s statements confirm he is among the few who understand the inevitability of the ICC mechanism once it is triggered, and that this cannot be stopped by a particular minister “blackmailing” his party or even the Grand Coalition principals.

If indeed, at some point, Mr Luis Moreno-Ocampo determines ICC indictments are in order, anybody who gets negatively tagged with the Waki List might as well consider their political career over. Even as the names it contains remain sealed, the public long ago surmised who they might be.

Unbelievably, some of those strongly believed to be in the List have been expressing presidential aspirations. Irrespective of whether Mr Moreno-Ocampo will be against them at some stage, it will be an extremely tall order for them to salvage their reputations, leave alone ever making it to State House, in view of what took place last year.