Uhuru now calling the shots in PNU

• POWER PLAY: While Kanu chairman has become the most visible spokesman of the coalition in almost every single political battle, several factors are likely to complicate any ambitions he might have for the presidency in 2012

A quiet transition appears to have taken place in the Party of National Unity (PNU) in the last few months with President Kibaki retreating to the shadows and Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta emerging to take his place.

Mr Kenyatta has been the most visible spokesman of PNU in almost every single political battle since the grand coalition was formed.

He was the man marshalling the troops last September when Justice Aaron Ringera came under fierce pressure, mainly from ODM MPs, to step down from his post.

Mr Kenyatta was also at the forefront in calling on authorities to tread cautiously in the Mau forest evictions, a position which put him at odds with ODM leader Raila Odinga.

Most recently, it was the Finance minister who rallied the PNU side to take a united position at the Parliamentary Select Committee talks which yielded agreement on the draft constitution.

He was also said to have facilitated the presence in Naivasha of a large team of experts which helped to guide the PNU side during the deliberations.

“It looks like the president has left it to Uhuru to deal with any controversial issues that crop up and which require PNU to take a position,” says Kanu organising secretary Justin Muturi. “It also appears that every time Mr Kibaki is under siege, he turns to Uhuru to deal with the crisis.”

Mr Kibaki’s apparent endorsement of Mr Kenyatta’s manoeuvres in PNU is hardly surprising.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Kibaki share long-standing family ties. It is said that it was Mr Kibaki who suggested to Kenya’s first president, Jomo Kenyatta, that he should name his son Uhuru (freedom) to mark the attainment of independence in 1963.

The two families, whose private residences are barely 500 metres apart in the upmarket Muthaiga residential area in Nairobi, also share deep political connections.

George Muhoho, an uncle of the younger Kenyatta, was one of the founders of President Kibaki’s Democratic Party of Kenya.

While Mr Kenyatta has unquestionably taken up the role of the main man within PNU, several factors are likely to complicate any ambitions he might have for the presidency.

His rise has served to somewhat eclipse the stars of the PNU coalition’s other giants – Vice president Kalonzo Musyoka and Internal Security minister Prof George Saitoti.

The two are also said to be eyeing the presidency and an endorsement of Mr Kenyatta by Mr Kibaki is unlikely to be greeted warmly by the pair.

Mr Kenyatta’s ethnicity is also a problem. It is widely perceived that it will be politically untenable for Mr Kibaki to be replaced by a fellow Kikuyu.
Another major headache is the fact that he is angling for the leadership of PNU without formally giving up his position as Kanu chairman.

Former president Daniel Moi, who is the real force within Kanu, is not enthusiastic about alliances with other parties and if Mr Kenyatta continues on his current path of greater involvement in PNU than Kanu, it is likely that a sustained campaign to kick him out of the independence party will be launched.

Already, Mr Moi’s son, Gideon, has been manoeuvring to oust Mr Kenyatta from Kanu.

Dr Joshua Kivuva, a political scientist from the University of Nairobi, says Mr Kenyatta’s prospects are not bright: “There is no prize at stake at the moment so it is unwise to try to position oneself as a front runner. It is just too early.”

Dr Kivuva also said the fact that PNU is a coalition and the party’s within it are divided on the way forward puts Mr Kenyatta at a disadvantage.

It is unclear whether Mr Kenyatta is positioning himself to make a run for the presidency or whether he wants to play the role of kingmaker within PNU. What is clear is that Mr Kenyatta has carved out for himself a central role in the succession battle.