Quiet revolution taking place in central Kenya’s politics

• POLITICAL ARENA: Realists from region understand that having solicited
  support from other communities before for its own presidential candidates, it might be time to return the favour in 2012

For the first time since the introduction of multi-party politics, the vote-rich Mt Kenya region appears up for grabs amidst considerable uncertainty over which direction voters in the region will go in 2012.

In the last four General Elections, the region’s vote has predictably gone to one of their own. But recent opinion polls and the controversy surrounding the planned visit by Prime Minister Raila Odinga to Murang’a District paint a more complicated picture this time round.

Veteran politician Matu Wamae, a close ally of President Kibaki, predicts a “flood” of politicians will head into central seeking the region’s support as Kibaki’s term draws to an end.

Mr Wamae is not surprised by the poll figures, which indicate that central Kenya heavyweight Uhuru Kenyatta is trailing behind Mr Odinga in the region.

Presidential aspirants in central Kenya, he says, must brace themselves for more competition from outside the region, as more people begin to look beyond Mount Kenya for leadership after Kibaki.

“The Kikuyu are willing to back someone from outside the region for the top seat,” says Mr Wamae.

He says political realists from the region understand that having solicited support from other communities for its own presidential candidates before, it might be time to return the favour in 2012.

One of the dynamics complicating life for presidential aspirants from central Kenya is the fact that no leader has emerged to serve as a central rallying point in the way Mr Kibaki did in 2002 and 2007.

This time round, key constituencies such as the Meru and Embu have shown a willingness to negotiate with candidates from outside the region such as Mr Odinga and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.

Cracks have also emerged in Central Province with MPs from Murang’a slow to warm up to Mr Kenyatta’s manoeuvres to take over PNU.

Former Mathioya MP Joseph Kamotho says traditional voting patterns will not hold in 2012. The region, he says, has been vilified for many years as one that only backs “one of their own”, a tag that it needs to shed in 2012.

The former secretary-general of Kanu says many voters in the region, largely viewed as a PNU stronghold, are now ready to consider backing ODM.

Planned visit

On the disquiet caused by the planned visit by Mr Odinga, Mr Kamotho says it is a wake-up call to central Kenya politicians, who he accuses of isolating the region through “tribal” politics.

Mr Kamotho says central Kenya politicians opposed to Mr Odinga’s planned visit should organise their own visits to Nyanza and Western provinces.

“If they (central politicians) are outwitted by others, they should not complain. This thing of saying ‘he is not one of our own’ must stop,” says Mr Kamotho.

The Mt Kenya vote has traditionally gone to candidates from the region. In 1992, the region’s vote was split between Mr Kibaki and veteran politician Kenneth Matiba. The divisions between the pair led to Mr Moi’s victory in 1992.

“They did not decide who to give their vote to between Kibaki and Matiba. When they divided it, Moi won,” says lawyer Duncan Mindo.

In 1997, Moi was joined by Raila Odinga in trying to wrench the central Kenya vote from Kibaki. But the region, predictably gave Kibaki 89 per cent of their vote. Moi managed 5.6 per cent while Raila managed 0.7 per cent of the region’s vote.

In 2002, Odinga backed Kibaki, and the hunt for central Kenya vote was largely between Kenyatta and Kibaki. About 62 per cent of the region’s vote went to Kibaki while 27 per cent went to Uhuru.

In the controversial 2007 polls, Odinga again went vote-hunting in central. And although he got a paltry 1.9 per cent of the region’s vote against Kibaki’s 97 per cent, it was an improvement from his previous 0.7 per cent in ’97.

And that, according to opinion leaders, puts him ahead of any other politician from outside central Kenya in the 2012 hunt for central Kenya vote. The hunting parties are already out in central.

Mr Kenyatta and former Justice minister Martha Karua are battling for front runner status among the local presidential candidates.

Top seat

Although he has not officially declared an interest, Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth is also said to be angling for the top seat.

The region has produced two presidents – Jomo Kenyatta who ruled for 15 years, and Kibaki, whose second and final five-year tenure ends in 2012.

But political observers say this is about to change in 2012, and that the planned visit to the region by the PM heralds a shift in political thinking in central.

The region’s ODM representative in the party’s national executive council, Mr Alex Irungu, says the recent poll that put ODM leader Odinga ahead of PNU’s Kenyatta in terms of popularity in central Kenya is a sign of a quiet revolution in central Kenya’s political scene.

Revolutions are led by the youth in the region, whom he says are more receptive of new political ideologies, and are eager to overturn the status quo in central Kenya politics.

“The youth are slowly beginning to realise that their real enemies are not the other communities, but a small group of rich politicians and their families, who have been controlling the region’s politics since independence,” says the ODM official.

But the perceived enemies without are just as powerful as the enemies within, in the political formulae of central Kenya.

According to opinion leaders, Kenyatta is losing out the popularity battle in his home region because of his association with ODM’s William Ruto.
Mr Ruto’s constituency in Eldoret North falls in a region which was worst affected by the post-election violence in 2008.

“He (Uhuru) is combining forces with the wrong people,” says a local political activist, Mr Wang’ondu Githinji.

Another veteran political activist and Kiambu businessman Nginyo Kariuki sees a similarity between the politics of central and those of Odinga’s home base in Nyanza.

Both regions are steeped in what he calls the politics of personalities, as opposed to political parties.

According to Nginyo, the much ado about  the planned PM’s visit to central is the reaction of a vulnerable people who, for decades, have been following personalities instead of parties and, as such, have no political party of their own to sell to other regions.

“We have been following people, instead of parties, and now that Raila, the leader of a powerful political party, is coming, everyone is scared,” says Nginyo.

And the fear is not triggered by Odinga, he says, but by the sudden realisation by politicians of central that they have no party of their own to counter the PM’s move in his own strongholds of Nyanza and Western.

Currently, the region’s politics is a cocktail of political parties, some known, others nondescript. While regions like Nyanza can claim to have ODM, Western FORD-K and ODM-K in Ukambani, Central has a long list of parties: PNU, DP, NARC-K, Kanu, GNU, NAPK, NAK ...

And just when the people of the region thought they had enough political movements to chose from, the President’s son, Jimmy Kibaki, has thrown his Simama Kenya into the mix.