Quiet revolution taking place in central Kenya’s politics

• POLITICAL ARENA: Realists from region understand that having solicited
  support from other communities before for its own presidential candidates, it might be time to return the favour in 2012

For the first time since the introduction of multi-party politics, the vote-rich Mt Kenya region appears up for grabs amidst considerable uncertainty over which direction voters in the region will go in 2012.

In the last four General Elections, the region’s vote has predictably gone to one of their own. But recent opinion polls and the controversy surrounding the planned visit by Prime Minister Raila Odinga to Murang’a District paint a more complicated picture this time round.

Veteran politician Matu Wamae, a close ally of President Kibaki, predicts a “flood” of politicians will head into central seeking the region’s support as Kibaki’s term draws to an end.

Mr Wamae is not surprised by the poll figures, which indicate that central Kenya heavyweight Uhuru Kenyatta is trailing behind Mr Odinga in the region.

Presidential aspirants in central Kenya, he says, must brace themselves for more competition from outside the region, as more people begin to look beyond Mount Kenya for leadership after Kibaki.

“The Kikuyu are willing to back someone from outside the region for the top seat,” says Mr Wamae.

He says political realists from the region understand that having solicited support from other communities for its own presidential candidates before, it might be time to return the favour in 2012.

One of the dynamics complicating life for presidential aspirants from central Kenya is the fact that no leader has emerged to serve as a central rallying point in the way Mr Kibaki did in 2002 and 2007.

This time round, key constituencies such as the Meru and Embu have shown a willingness to negotiate with candidates from outside the region such as Mr Odinga and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.

Cracks have also emerged in Central Province with MPs from Murang’a slow to warm up to Mr Kenyatta’s manoeuvres to take over PNU.

Former Mathioya MP Joseph Kamotho says traditional voting patterns will not hold in 2012. The region, he says, has been vilified for many years as one that only backs “one of their own”, a tag that it needs to shed in 2012.

The former secretary-general of Kanu says many voters in the region, largely viewed as a PNU stronghold, are now ready to consider backing ODM.

Planned visit

On the disquiet caused by the planned visit by Mr Odinga, Mr Kamotho says it is a wake-up call to central Kenya politicians, who he accuses of isolating the region through “tribal” politics.

Mr Kamotho says central Kenya politicians opposed to Mr Odinga’s planned visit should organise their own visits to Nyanza and Western provinces.