ODM kingmaker turned destroyer of the king

After the last General Election, the Orange Democratic Movement party praised Agriculture minister William Ruto as the ultimate kingmaker. But today he seems to have reversed roles: he can be said to be on a mission to destroy the king.

The man who insisted Mr Odinga had won the 2007 presidential election and pushed for power-sharing between the ODM leader and President Kibaki now says he regrets to have supported the Prime Minister. Mr Ruto was in the Serena team, together with Musalia Mudavadi, Sally Kosgei and James Orengo that put up a strong case for Mr Odinga.

The Agriculture minister devoted his energy and resources to campaign for Mr Odinga but has now drawn battle lines, marking the most dramatic shift of loyalty in the Orange party since the enactment of the National Accord two years ago.

Next election

The rivalry with his erstwhile ally, which has split the party, has significantly declined the PM’s political fortunes. And, whichever way one looks at Mr Ruto’s influence in the coalition, it will likely shape the outcome of the next election if he continues to retain the support of the Kalenjin.

Already, he has declared he will contest the presidency come 2012. This perhaps explains why their war has been a major talking point both at the party and the national level. Mr Ruto’s fallout with the PM not only denies Mr Odinga the bulk of the Kalenjin support, which he enjoyed in the last election, but also the backing of Mr Ruto’s allies in Parliament.

Effectively, Mr Odinga is being forced to look for an alternative vote. This is believed to be behind his attempt to make forays into Central Province. “Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto are fighting for Central Kenya votes because they have equal numbers from their regions,” says Central Imenti MP Gitobu Imanyara.

Mr Imanyara says Mr Ruto wants votes from Central and Western regions as Nyanza will back the PM. “What we are seeing is a fundamental re-alignment of the coalition before the July referendum,” the MP says. Their differences can be traced to the handling of the post-election violence suspects with Mr Odinga supporting the trial of the key suspects at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. 

Be prosecuted

Mr Ruto was particularly irked by the PM’s position that the youth who were involved in what he calls post-election protests be prosecuted. According to Mr Ruto, the youth were freedom fighters without whom Mr Odinga would not have shared power with President Kibaki.

Mr Imanyara says that the ICC debate was the final stroke that broke the marriage between the two. Mr Ruto has moved to court seeking to expunge sections of a report by the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights which link him to the post-election violence.

“The ODM, as constituted at the time we went for elections, is dead. It was killed when Raila started wavering towards The Hague. This affected these people who felt that they fought for Mr Odinga and expected him  to reciprocate,” he told the Sunday Nation.

Their rivalry would be replayed in Mr Odinga’s push for the eviction of illegal settlers from the 400,000-hectare Mau forest. The Agriculture minister saw it as an affront to members of his community. Mr Odinga’s decision to suspend the Agriculture minister this month, which was later overturned by the President, indicated their relationship had hit the lowest ebb.

Matters are more complicated with Mr Ruto’s dalliance with Deputy Prime minister Uhuru Kenyatta and talk of the so-called Triple K alliance also involving Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.

Rock bottom

His exclusion from the powerful House Business Committee, which sets the agenda for Parliament, drove their relationship to rock bottom. The battle has given Mr Odinga’s critics in the Party of National Unity, some of them allied to Mr Ruto, an opportunity to cut the PM’s clout both in and outside Parliament as evidenced in Parliament this past week.

Though from a casual glance the issues appeared a simple disagreement over names, the undercurrent points to a scheme to settle scores and project Mr Ruto’s influence in the Orange party. In fact, as early as Tuesday when they got wind of the list, a group of MPs from both sides of the coalition had sworn to paralyse House business if the Eldoret North MP was not included.

And, seemingly emboldened by the support by PNU MPs, his allies are convinced that they have enough numbers to clip Mr Odinga’s wings. The quarrel in Parliament also highlighted the bad blood between the Prime Minister and some PNU members. The PNU group’s enthusiasm to join what was an otherwise ODM affair could barely be disguised.

Now that the battle lines have been drawn, the question is whether Mr Ruto has the muscle to wage the battle. There is also the fear that party wars will spill into the House and derail its agenda particularly the constitution review. It seems Mr Ruto has taken comfort in numbers – at least for now – and appears to be enjoying Mr Kenyatta’s support.

The two youthful ministers wield immense resources, a critical tool in Kenyan politics. The ODM deputy leader commands the support of Kalenjin MPs except Mr Langat Magerer, party chairman and Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey and his Higher Education colleague Dr Sally Kosgei, Kapenguria MP Julius Murgor, Wilson Litole (Sigor) and nominated MP Musa Sirma.

He also has the backing of some PNU members, mainly Mr Kenyatta’s allies. Indeed, a significant portion of PNU MPs threw their weight behind Mr Isaac Ruto’s motion of adjournment last Wednesday. Of the 71 who backed the motion, 49 were from the PNU coalition.

Mr Ruto, who has teamed up with his Tourism counterpart Najib Balala in defiance of the PM, attracts considerable following in Upper Eastern and North Eastern regions and has a handful of Luhyia and Kisii MPs as well. A graduate of the Moi school of politics, the minister understand Mr Odinga’s political thinking, having worked with him closely since the 2005 law referendum and the last election campaigns. If a motion of no-confidence were brought up against the PM, the Ruto allies would marshal sufficient numbers to pose a threat.