Diplomatic cable reveals fears of a Raila presidency

Fears of Prime Minister Raila Odinga ascending to the presidency after the 2007 General Election by close confidantes of President Kibaki have been revealed in a diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.

A Cabinet minister warned a US embassy official that Mr Odinga was likely to turn into a dictator if he won the hotly disputed General Election.

A diplomatic cable dated October 9, 2007, says during a meeting with Mr Larry Andre, a political counsel at the US embassy in Nairobi, the minister expressed reservations about an Odinga presidency, saying he was likely to build a Moi-style personality cult.

The minister even hinted at the possibility of an assassination, saying he did not think Mr Odinga would last more than a few months in office given Kenya’s history of high-profile political assassinations.

“The minister reminded political counsel (PolCouns) of Mr Odinga’s studies in East Germany, alleging that his undergraduate thesis had been on building nail bombs,” the cable from the whistle-blowing website adds.

The minister claimed that the Odinga family had long harboured a scheme to create a “Greater Luoland” in western Kenya, uniting the Luo-speaking people of Kenya, Uganda and Southern Sudan.

Prime Minister Odinga’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, was a leading figure in the struggle for Kenyan independence, the country’s first vice- president, and later an opposition leader.

The cable continues: “The minister noted the close ties between former Ugandan president Milton Obote and the Odinga clan, adding that Mr Odinga would create an oppressive Obote-style regime.”

The US embassy official said the minister claimed Mr Odinga would say whatever he thinks would make him popular without thinking about the consequences.

He gave the example of Mr Odinga telling Luos in Nairobi’s Kibera slum not to pay rent to their Muslim landlords.

Avenge the murders

“The minister claimed Mr Odinga would feel compelled to avenge the murders of slain Luos Tom Mboya, an independence-era leader believed to have been killed by a Kikuyu, and Robert Ouko, a Moi-era foreign minister believed to have been murdered by a Kalenjin,” it adds.

However, the US official noted that since the Kalenjin community had a traditionally antagonistic relationship with the Kikuyu and was then largely backing Mr Odinga, it was not entirely logical to suppose that Mr Odinga would seek revenge against them.

“Mr Odinga would be pressured to avenge these deaths not only against the individual perpetrators, but against entire communities, setting off wider ethnic violence and possibly leading to a retaliatory attempt on Mr Odinga’s life,” the minister said.

The minister added that an Odinga presidency would be ethnically divisive and short-lived.

The US official said: “Not surprisingly for a Kibaki loyalist, (the minister) trotted out a laundry list of anti-Odinga propaganda.”

The US said it was aware of Mr Odinga’s past and family ties, but it did not share the minister’s view that he was a dangerous radical who would destabilise the region and undermine Kenya’s economic progress.

“That said, Luos (Odinga’s ethnic group) have felt excluded from power since independence and might aggressively assert their new-found strength, especially in the first few months of the new administration, possibly provoking considerable social tension rather than creating an environment for inter-ethnic cooperation and reconciliation,” the cable concludes.