False start for ODM fire-fighting team
The resurgence of Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi has thrust him into a do-or-die situation.
The new fight for the ODM presidential ticket also presents a dilemma to his boss, Prime Minister Raila Odinga who faces a delicate balancing act to promote democracy in the country’s largest party and at the same time retain the invaluable support in Western Province, the deputy PM’s home turf.
The PM’s headache is to ensure he not only wins the ticket against an increasingly emboldened Mr Mudavadi and protect the party from disintegrating.
Disputed nomination rules have shattered parties in Kenya since the return of multi-partyism in 1992.
The duel which, which has sent shockwaves in the party rank and file, has prompted the party to form a rapid response team to try to cement party unity.
Leaders on the Orange Rapid Response Team have been tasked with healing the rifts in the party, after Mr Mudavadi opted to challenge Prime Minister Raila Odinga for the party’s presidential ticket in the General Election. (READ: Mudavadi rejects call to step aside)
The team of 10 ministers, five assistant ministers, and two MPs allied to Mr Odinga in ODM, met on Wednesday evening at a Nairobi hotel, where Raila-Mudavadi rivalry was discussed.
Those in attendance included Mr Fred Gumo, Mr William ole Ntimama, Mr Dalmas Otieno, Dr Paul Otuoma, Dr Chris Obure, Mr Farah Maalim, Mr James Orengo, Mr Sospeter Ojaamong’, Mr Musa Sirma, Mr Joseph Nyagah, and Mr Franklin Bett.
A member of the team is said to have floated a proposal that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) be crafted by the party top brass that would require Mr Odinga to serve for one term, if he wins the presidency, and back Mr Mudavadi in the 2017 General Election.
Other ODM MPs have also demanded that the party national executive council intervene, and resolve the differences between the two leaders.
Party position
But on Sunday Mr Sirma, an ally of the PM, said that the party position was that Mr Mudavadi continues with his campaign and dismissed calls that the deputy PM withdraw in favour of Mr Odinga.
“There is nothing like stepping down for anybody. We want ODM to be an example in the promotion of democracy to the other parties,” he said.
Mr Mudavadi’s spokesman Kibisu-Kabatesi dismissed the team saying they were not aware of its formation.
“First, there is no crisis to warrant the formation of such a team. If anything it helps bring tension which sould not have been there at all,” he told the Sunday Nation on phone.
He spoke from Kitui where Mr Mudavadi met 360 delegates who reportedly endorsed his candidature.
Mr Mudavadi is walking a tightrope. Keen not be seen as loyalist who never wants to offend his boss, he is coming out strongly to stake a claim to the ticket.
And even if he were to lose he can tell his supporters that he fought for his space.
University of Nairobi literary scholar Chris Wanjala says Mr Mudavadi would attract a lot of interest across the country if he seized the ODM presidential ticket owing to his non-controversial approach to politics.
But pulling out of the race would be costly for Mr Mudavadi, says Prof Wanjala.
“He must forge on. A retreat in the battle will be suicidal because his constituents might kick him out of Parliament,” said Prof Wanjala.
Mr Odinga would not want to upset the Western Province voting bloc which is the largest in ODM by being seen to be fighting one of their own.
This is understood to have prompted the setting up of the rapid response team to seek a compromise on the stalemate.
Mr Mudavadi perhaps rues the 2002 decision to quit the Narc coalition and return to Kanu as Mr Uhuru Kenyatta’s de facto running mate which saw him voted out of Parliament.
On the other hand, Mr Mudavadi might not want to upset the PM who resurrected his political career and stuck with him during his ODM wars with Eldoret North MP William Ruto by giving him the deputy PM’s job.
“The perception is that he is a project of Raila Odinga. If he were to be his own man and stop playing second fiddle to him, he would command support from Luyhialand which has been clamouring for the real thing having had the vice-presidency three times,” said Prof Wanjala.
More ominously for Mr Odinga, according to the university don, there is a possibility that Western Province will rally behind another candidate if Mr Mudavadi doesn’t run for the presidency.
Though they are populous, the region hardly vote as a bloc. It also has the distinction of recording some of the highest levels of voter apathy during elections.
Prof Wanjala attributes this to a lack of a charismatic leader capable of uniting the community.
But he reckons that a possible Mudavadi presidential candidacy raises the political stakes and could result in an unprecedented high turnout in the next polls.
Moreover, Prof Wanjala reckons that the Sabatia MP might benefit from phobia for Mr Odinga in some sections of the country.
“If, for some reason, Mr Ruto doesn’t run for presidency Mudavadi would be a strong candidate. His father Moses Mudavadi enjoyed a great relationship with the former president.
Mudavadi also worked well with Mr Moi who appointed him as a vice president. He will be easier to market in Kalenjin Rift Valley,” said Mr Stanley Rotich, a UDM official in the Rift Valley.
Carrot dangled
Matters have not been helped by the carrot reportedly dangled by the Uhuru-Ruto alliance that they considered him a compromise candidate even if only to spite Mr Odinga.
This has been reinforced by the duo’s recent shaky relations with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.
Reports that Ford Kenya is considering forming an alliance with ODM, hence solidifying the Western support, is another plus for Mr Mudavadi.
Assistant Minister George Khaniri said it was now evident ODM opponents have joined forces to stop Mr Odinga and asked him to support Mr Mudavadi.
“Our opponents know he (Raila) is our scorer and have heavily marked him. Now we say let him pass the ball to Musalia to score,” says Mr Khaniri.
Mr Mudavadi is also fighting the career running mate tag and wants to be a running by merit and not by designation.
Another factor that could have pushed the Sabatia MP is the Eugene Wamalwa factor.
The Saboti MP, who is a member of the G-7 alliance, is hanging in the wings to take Mr Mudavadi’s positions as the Western province hope if the latter does not vie.
Mr Odinga hinges his hopes on the fact he is the most popular candidate, according to opinion polls.
He has however come under heavy criticism from the G-7 alliance that he engineered Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta’s prosecutions at The Hague.
There is the perception Mr Odinga’s handlers have mismanaged the nominations issue with Chief whip Jakoyo Midiwo/ and assistant minister Oburu Oginga muddying the waters with their abrasive manner of opposing Mr Mudavadi’s bid.
But university of Nairobi political science lecturer does not see a possibility of Mr Mudavadi moving out of ODM.
“First I don’t think he is a real threat to the PM and he should be left to be. He also would not like a situation like the 2002 one when he lost his seat,” he said, adding that it was in the interest of ODM to have a healthy competition.
