For Kibaki and Raila, the end of a love-hate political union

For 24 years, President Moi made utterly sure that there was only one centre of power in government.

The spirit of the times was captured in this quote from a speech on his return from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on September 13, 1984, which is worth quoting at length because it summarises a key difference between the Kenyatta and Moi eras and the last decade in which President Kibaki has held power:

“I would like to say while here with you that for progress to be realised there should be no debate in the newspapers about this and that. What is required is for people to work in a proper manner... I call on all ministers, assistant ministers and every other person to sing like parrots.

“During Mzee Kenyatta’s time I persistently sang the Kenyatta tune until people said: This person has nothing to say except to sing for Kenyatta. Why was I to have my own ideas? I was in Kenyatta’s shoes and therefore had to sing whatever Kenyatta wanted... If I had sung another song do you think Kenyatta would have left me alone?

Therefore, you have to sing the song I sing. If I put a full stop you should also put a full stop. This is how this country will move forward. The day you become a big person, you will have the liberty to sing your own song and everybody will sing it.”

In contrast to the Kenyatta and Moi presidencies, the Kibaki era has lacked a single dominant personality at the heart of government.
In fact, Mr Kibaki’s 10 years in power are unique for the fact that they introduced Kenyans to the concept of power-sharing.

From the moment up to a half a dozen Cabinet ministers walked out on Moi at the instigation of Raila Odinga and joined the Kibaki-led opposition, the story of the last decade has been in effect a tale about the working relationship between Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki.

Kenya soared when they forged a good partnership. That was the case in 2002 when their alliance ended 40 years of dictatorship under Kanu. Memorably, the two also campaigned side-by-side for the endorsement of the new Constitution, one of the highlights of the past decade.

But Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga have also been at the heart of the worst debacles of the Narc years. The squabbling and wrangling of the first term and the post-election violence, which exacted such a high toll on the nation, stand out as the worst examples.

Whichever way the Supreme Court decision on Mr Odinga’s poll petition and the response by President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta and three other goes, Mr Kibaki’s imminent exit from office will mark the end of the Kibaki-Raila era that has been the defining feature of the last decade of Kenyan politics.

“There is no question these two men have been the dominant figures who have influenced developments in the country politically for the last decade,” says Prof Macharia Munene of the United States International University.

“But it has been a troubled relationship, and the future can only be better. When you have a divided government very little happens. When the nation has one centre of power then you can blame someone and credit them in equal measure. For the last five years there has been nobody to blame when things went wrong because each side would just point fingers at the other one.”

Dr Adams Oloo of the University of Nairobi political science department offers a more upbeat assessment of the Kibaki-Raila years saying, ultimately, history will judge that the last decade has been a vast improvement on what came before.

“This has been an era of openness and the transition from what was a dictatorial system to a more open political system,” he says.
“Apart from the period during the post-election violence, this has also been a time of economic stability. The economy has grown significantly compared to the anaemic economic expansion witnessed in the 1990s. Overall there has been some success.”

Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga were always reluctant partners. In July 2002, all indications were that they would be in opposite camps during the transitional presidential election.

Mr Kibaki had forged an alliance with fellow opposition bigwigs Kijana Wamalwa and Charity Ngilu. Mr Odinga was in Kanu and was one of nearly a dozen leaders hoping for Mr Moi’s annointment as the party’s presidential candidate.

Mr Moi’s decision to pick Uhuru Kenyatta triggered a series of events that turned the political scene upside down. Mr Odinga retreated from the presidential race but was unsure which candidate would be best placed to defeat Mr Kenyatta.

He toyed with the idea of endorsing Prof George Saitoti or Kalonzo Musyoka before signing a short-lived pact with Simeon Nyachae. Then on October 14, 2002, Mr Odinga made his famous “Kibaki tosha” speech. If this was a forced marriage, it was clear from the start that it would need a lot of work to make it a functional union.

Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga are very different personalities. The Prime Minister is a natural politician at ease with the masses. Mr Kibaki is a regal presence who comes across as the ultimate elitist. He alone among Kenyan politicians has never seen the sense of joining in with traditional dancers, usually a vote-seeking gesture.

Mr Odinga is restless. Body language experts can easily deduce this from the fact that he can hardly sit still at public functions. Mr Kibaki is the exact opposite. His indecision earned him the reputation as the nation’s top fence-sitter in the 1990s.

Things did not get off to a good start after the pair led Narc in defeating Kanu in a landslide. Dr Oloo attributes the rocky relations to the twin factors of Mr Kibaki’s poor health and the two men’s contrasting personalities.

“This was a situation where one of the leaders (Kibaki) is laid back and the other is proactive (Raila). The notable fact is that when the two have been left alone things have gone smoothly. But their henchmen, particularly on Mr Kibaki’s side, have often intervened to keep Raila at bay when they saw that the two were working well.”

In early 2003, a Gallup poll found that Kenyans were the most optimistic people on earth. In September 2010, after most of the political class had united to endorse the new Constitution, another poll published by the financial news website CPI Financial found that Kenyans were more optimistic about their future than citizens of most other nations.

Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki briefly went their separate ways following the defeat of the government-backed draft constitution in 2005.
They were reunited in the chaotic aftermath of the 2007 presidential election. The deal brokered to end the violence, which saw Mr Odinga take the office of Prime Minister, was ironically an exact copy of the MOU between the two parties that triggered so much feuding in the first Kibaki term.

There were some benefits to the union between Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga. Although there was no official opposition, the ‘grand coalition’ formed by the national accord in 2008 was the most inclusive government since the early years of independence, and many large-scale infrastructure projects in energy and transport were concluded in the last five years.

Both sides also served as a check on each other, but what the public did not like was the constant feuding. During public hearings on the shape of a new constitution, the overwhelming view of wananchi was that they wanted only one centre of power.

The Constitution that emerged set the stage for the recent presidential election. This time President Kibaki sat it out, and his perennial rival faced off against a set of leaders – Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto – with whom he last tangled in 2002.