Ford-K fortunes set to change as it hitches ride on ODM coat tails

• Decision to ditch PNU Alliance for Orange movement will revive waning support for party in region

Ford Kenya’s decision to ditch the PNU Alliance for the Orange Democratic Movement is being seen as an attempt to shore up its dwindling support.

The move could also help ODM consolidate its grip on the Western vote. (READ: Ford-K to mull over alliance with ODM)

Once the dominant player in the region, Ford-K, the party of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Michael Wamalwa has, over the years, been limited to pockets of Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties.

Today, even this enclave is not guaranteed following a disputed election last year that saw former chairman Musikari Kombo and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa quit for the splinter New Ford Kenya. (READ: Ford-K vows to crack the whip on ‘rebels’)

The elections installed Foreign Affairs minister Moses Wetang’ula as chairman. Since then, the party has lost two civic by-elections in Kimilili and Webuye to Wamalwa’s New Ford-K.

Barely scrapped through

In the 2007 elections, Ford-K allied candidates lost in Kanduyi and Webuye constituencies. In Sirisia, Mr Wetang’ula barely scrapped through in a gruelling battle with ODM’s John Waluke.

Thus, last weekend’s rally in Bungoma town at which the new alliance with Raila Odinga’s party was announced did not come as a surprise to many supporters and observers.

Dr Martin Mulwale, a Maseno University lecturer, says the alliance will see Ford-K improve its fortunes, especially if ODM does not field candidates against it.

“Ford Kenya wants to cling to ODM for its survival in the midst of strong competition from New Ford Kenya,” he says.

Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University agrees.

“The move is a good strategy for Ford-K. It is associating with a party which is formidable in the region … which already commands majority following,’’ he says

Ford-K, he says, may also be positioning itself to reap from a strong wave of support for ODM should Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi emerge as the Orange party’s presidential nominee.

“I think Mudavadi’s chances of getting the ODM ticket are high and this has really excited Western Kenya,’’ Prof Kabaji says, adding that the competition between Mr Mudavadi and Mr Odinga favours the alliance.

Mr Wetang’ula and Ford-K will benefit irrespective of who between Mr Odinga  and Mr Mudavadi is the candidate.

So what is in this alliance for Mr Odinga and ODM?

It will help the Orange party to repulse an onslaught in Western by the G7 Alliance through New Ford-K and consolidate its support base in the region. (READ: New Ford-K launches grassroots drive to recruit new members)

But this will only happen if there is no fallout in ODM arising from the Mudavadi-Odinga fight for the party’s presidential ticket.