ICC ruling likely to be a political game changer

• Court’s verdict expected to permanently alter the landscape as Kenyans prepare for elections

Just hours after the names were released, President Kibaki rejected calls to have those in public office sacked.

“I wish to state that the people who have been mentioned have not yet been fully investigated as the pre-trial process in The Hague has only but begun. They therefore cannot be judged as guilty until the charges are confirmed by the court,” the President said in a terse dispatch from the Presidential Press Service to newsrooms.

The President said at the time that calls for action against those named were “prejudicial, preemptive and against the rules of natural justice”.

On that day, the President also announced that the government was fully committed to establishing a local tribunal, plans which have since been placed by the Cabinet in the cooler.

On the other hand, if the judges drop charges, it will grant the six suspects a new lease of life in every sphere of their operation. The most dramatic outcome is likely to be noticed in the political careers of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, both of whom have said they are running for the presidency at the elections, regardless of the verdict on Monday. (READ: ICC: Mutula dismisses Uhuru, Ruto presidential bid)

On Saturday, the BBC published an interview with Mr Kenyatta in which he said he remains in the race for State House.

“I will not sit here and tell you that it has been easy. It’s been very difficult. I have never believed that there was any reason or justification for my name being put forward. But, as a believer in the rule of law, we will ultimately be found innocent,” Mr Kenyatta told the BBC.

The deputy PM said that the ICC process had not affected his political ambitions “whatsoever” but that his family had been affected. “It’s not easy for one’s children to hear that you have been accused of international crimes and yet you know you are innocent and they know what you are capable of and what you are not capable of,” Mr Kenyatta said.

On Saturday, Mr Muthaura spoke about his expectations and hopes. “I’m praying to God and I’m sure the court will do justice,” he told journalists in Nairobi.

And, in a dramatic twist, Commission for the Implementation of the Constitution chairman Charles Nyachae said that there was nothing in Kenyan law that bars anyone from running for elective office.

In a statement released to newsrooms, Mr Nyachae said that his commission was of the view that Chapter Six of the Constitution, which deals with leadership and integrity, cannot be enforced before Parliament passes the necessary laws.

“In our view, therefore, there exists no legal bar to any candidate, whether charged in Kenya or under international law, to offer themselves for election.

“Furthermore, on the continued holding of public office, the only legal provisions that call for suspension of public officers charged with offences are in the Anti-Corruption and Economic Crimes Act which require a public officer to be suspended once they are charged with economic crimes. The proposed legislation under Article 80 will address this aspect too,” Mr Nyachae said.

In their view, those in office could continue holding office even if charges against them are confirmed.

According to a Catholic Church sponsored survey, a majority of Kenyans think that politicians’ fear of the International Criminal Court would lead to a peaceful General Election.

They also believe that the formation of a new electoral body, reforms in the judiciary and police department as well as the adverse effects of the post-election violence are other factors that would see a quiet transition take place.

The nationwide research carried out by the Jesuit Hakimani Centre found that 62 per cent of respondents believed the ICC process would deter future violence.

However, 24.4 per cent fear that it could swing either way while 13.5 per cent are worried that the elections would not be peaceful, some attributing it to the fact that some of the politicians in the run for various offices had not changed.