ICC ruling likely to be a political game changer

• Court’s verdict expected to permanently alter the landscape as Kenyans prepare for elections

The much-awaited verdict by the Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court on the six Kenyans is expected to permanently alter the political landscape as the country prepares for the next General Election. (READ: ICC Judges to decide fate of Ocampo six on Monday)

If the charges are confirmed on Monday, it is likely Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Civil Service Chief Francis Muthaura and Postmaster General Hussein Ali may be found unsuitable or unable to discharge their official functions.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga may also have to fire suspended Industrialisation minister and ODM chairman Henry Kosgey if the charges against him are confirmed.

The departure of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Muthaura from the Kibaki court would mean that the Head of State, who retires later in the year, would have to appoint new faces to these key government positions.

Mr Muthaura is Kenya’s highest ranking civil servant and is perceived to be the powerful fulcrum around which the presidency operates.

Mr Kenyatta, Mr Muthaura, Maj-Gen (rtd) Ali and Mr Kosgey were named alongside Eldoret North MP William Ruto and radio journalist Joshua arap Sang on suspicion of bearing the greatest responsibility for the most serious crimes committed during the post-election violence.

They have all protested their innocence and assembled top-notch legal defence teams to fight the charges.

On Saturday, the suspects were guarded about how they would prepare for and where they would receive the court’s ruling.

The International Crisis Group, a global anti-conflict watchdog, says in a report on the Kenyan case that the ICC verdict would have a direct bearing on Kenya’s political landscape.

“The ICC’s action is now an inescapable element of the political process as Kenya heads to elections.

Even if an early confirmation of charges may not legally prevent the suspects from running for office, the risk of conviction would affect supporters and allies. The timing and framing of proceedings and decisions can lower or increase volatile tensions,” the International Crisis Group says.

On the other hand, the crisis group estimates, if all the charges are dropped, it is likely that the alliance between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would not hold and each would run their own presidential campaign.

On the other hand, at the hearing in The Hague, Mr Kenyatta told the judges that Mr Odinga bore political responsibility for the violence. The message that the case was politically motivated would be repeated at the campaigns.

It remains the discretion of the ICC whether, if charges are confirmed, the suspects will remain free men or be taken into custody if they are found, for instance, to be interfering with witnesses or demeaning the court.

Since their return from the confirmation of charges hearing, the suspects have avoided speaking ill of the court in public rallies or news conferences.

There has also been no hullabaloo and no public rallies and prayers, especially for Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta.

There has also been no hate speech from them and their supporters following a warning by Judge Ekaterina Trendafilova in April last year.

On return from The Hague, it was only Mr Ruto whose arrival was recorded by the media while the rest chose to return and resume their lives quietly. The suspects were named by ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo on December 15, 2010, touching off calls from civil society for those holding public office to step down.