ICC: Why Raila is walking tightrope

• The ICC decision committing four Kenyans to trial is the new pivot around which the Kibaki succession will revolve.
• Mr Odinga was on Saturday mum on the fate of rivals Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto as his wife Ida and lieutenants issued conflicting statements.
• Mr Kenyatta says he will not resign as deputy PM and maintains he will be in the presidential race. Mr Ruto, too, has vowed to be on the ballot.

The impending trial of four Kenyans at the International Criminal Court is likely to be a pivotal issue in the next General Election with two of the accused already showing their intention to turn it into a referendum on the trials.

At the rallies they addressed in Eldoret on Friday and in Kiambu on Saturday, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto painted the race to succeed President Kibaki as a battle to stop Prime Minister Raila Odinga from ascending to the presidency.

That emotive pitch to their supporters in their respective backyards is likely to provide the key story line of the succession battle in the months to come.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, who have both said they will be running for president, are in a loose alliance of politicians identified with their opposition to Mr Odinga.

However, they have yet to find a formula to pick one candidate to run against the PM.

The duo have consistently attempted to cast the PM as having something to do with the trials, although they have not provided proof for their claims. (READ: Uhuru blames violence on Raila)

Political analyst Karuti Kanyinga warns that such mobilisation could easily take the country back to the dark days of 2007.

Prof Kanyinga points out that the efforts by politicians to use the International Criminal Court (ICC) as an election issue threatens stability.

“The continuing mobilisation of communities and grouping of leaders along ethnic lines is a stark reminder that this can easily push the country to the precipice,” he says.

“The offhand attitude of the leaders towards the ICC ruling and a similarly cavalier attitude to the new Constitution and its institutions are likely to fail the country yet again.”

On Saturday, a group of ODM MPs defended the Prime Minister against attacks by MPs allied to Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.

Assistant minister Alfred Khangati said these individuals were being dishonest because most of them had supported the ICC process in Parliament.

“They were loud in saying let’s go to The Hague and now they are accusing Mr Odinga of scheming for the downfall of some of those whose charges have been confirmed by the court,” Mr Khangati said during the burial of Paul Luyali Khaniri, brother to assistant minister George Khaniri at Kapsotik in Vihiga.

Mr Odinga was among the mourners. Others who spoke in defence of Mr Odinga were MPs Josphat Nanok (Turkana South), George Khaniri (Hamisi), Yusuf Chanzu (Vihiga) and Justus Kizito (Shinyalu).

They were apparently responding to remarks made by the entourage of MPs who accompanied Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto to their weekend meetings.

Mr Odinga meanwhile steered clear of the ICC but instead said he was optimistic that ODM will win the elections decisively and form the next government.

The PM spoke a day after his wife, Ida argued for local trials and expressed her sympathies with the families of the four accused. (READ: Ida calls for local trial of ICC suspects)

The PM’s camp has appeared divided in their response to the ICC issue, with Mr Odinga’s staunch allies James Orengo and ODM chief whip Jakoyo Midiwo initially demanding the sacking of Mr Kenyatta and former Public Service head Francis Muthaura.