Irony of Kalonzo’s boost for Raila

In the late 1980s when age appeared to be catching up with Jaramogi Odinga, and there was consensus that the grand old man of Kenyan opposition politics would never attain the presidency, a lawyer with whom he differed witheringly described him as a “slow-punctured politician”.

In recent months, there was a temptation to apply that tag to his son, Raila.

The younger Odinga’s formidable 2007 coalition had crumbled. His biggest constituency appeared to have been snatched from his grasp by the exit of William Ruto, the pre-eminent player in Kalenjin politics.

His loyal deputy Musalia Mudavadi had also abandoned him, and the loyalty of the other members of the Pentagon high council of his ODM party — Charity Ngilu and Joe Nyagah — was far from certain.

Huge support bases

On the other side, a group of young politicians in Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Ruto appeared to have the wind firmly behind their sails. Telegenic, vibrant and with huge support bases on the ground, they seemed all but unstoppable.

On Tuesday, Mr Odinga, in time-honoured fashion, pulled himself back from the brink and changed the narrative of the campaign. The new alliance he unveiled on the steps of the Kenyatta International Conference Centre helped to restore his position in many eyes as frontrunner in the race for president.

And the biggest irony was that Mr Odinga’s lost sheen was restored by one of his most bitter rivals of the last five years, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.

For Mr Odinga, the recovery he has staged recalls the situation he was in at the end of September 2002.

Having been lured into Kanu by President Moi to counter the opposition that threatened to overrun the ruling party in Parliament in 1998, Mr Odinga had hoped his reward for propping up the government would be a chance at the presidency on a Kanu ticket.

But President Moi had other plans. In picking Mr Kenyatta from oblivion to be his chosen successor, Mr Moi appeared to have ruined the political careers of politicians in the government with an eye on the succession.

Mr Odinga, Mr Musyoka and their Cabinet colleagues Musalia Mudavadi and the late Prof George Saitoti all fell into this bracket.

A series of manoeuvres by Mr Odinga confounded President Moi, triggered a mass exodus from Kanu and smoothed the path to power for an alliance of opposition parties headed by Democratic Party chief Mwai Kibaki.

As he made clear in his speech to ODM delegates at Kasarani on Friday, Mr Odinga will be hoping that the 2002 script plays out on March 4 and his Coalition for Reform and Democracy comes out victorious, this time with him as presidential candidate.

Yet the next election promises to be a closer affair than the 2002 poll was. The crude ethnic arithmetic — if Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto can marshal their groups to vote solidly for whomever heads their ticket, and some of Mr Mudavadi’s supporters come on board — means that the TNA/URP/UDF ticket will inevitably be formidable.

What Mr Odinga won on Tuesday morning was the battle of perceptions. Mr Musyoka is, psychologically and in real terms, a big catch. He brings the name-recognition and prominence that comes with the position of Vice-President.

Discord and dysfunction

He also commands a proven solid constituency displayed by his vote total in the last election, which approached the 10 per cent mark. But the irony of the union will be lost to none.

The story of the discord and dysfunction in the PNU/ODM grand coalition is in many ways the story of the battles between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka.

Right from the start, it was clear that members of the circle around Mr Kibaki were reluctant signatories to the national accord that created the governing coalition.

As ever, Mr Kibaki did not want to show his hand. Instead, the Vice-President was the man who repeatedly locked horns with the PM and seemed detailed with the role of cutting Mr Odinga down to size.

Barely had the leaders of the coalition taken office than Head of Public Service Francis Muthaura issued a circular “clarifying” that the pecking order in government placed the Vice-President above the Prime Minister.

At state functions, civil servants arranged to have Mr Musyoka speak after Mr Odinga, a signal in government protocol of who is the senior partner.

The two also took to exchanging harsh barbs in public. Mr Odinga’s outburst about being given “half a carpet” treatment came during this period of intense public humiliation by those calling the shots in government.

The reunion between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka was seen by many as a vindication of the notion that only interests are permanent in defining the political positions of career politicians.

But many will hope that, if they win the presidency, Mr Musyoka and Mr Odinga will be able to work with greater harmony than they did in the early days of the coalition.

It was instructive earlier in the week that ODM strategists were doing their best to accommodate Mr Musyoka. He spoke after Mr Odinga when the union was announced on Tuesday.

On Thursday, it was the PM who went to see the VP at his office in the run-up to the ODM delegates’ conference.

For now, Cord has forced rival coalitions back to the drawing board.

The durability of the pact between Mr Musyoka and Mr Odinga will certainly be tested in the next few months as the foes-turned-friends forge a partnership to take on their rivals.