Kalonzo caught between a rock and hard place

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has found himself in a more or less the situation he was in days to the 2007 General Election.

After declaring his interest in the presidency and parting ways with ODM-Kenya leaders allied to Prime Minister Raila Odinga in 2007, Mr Musyoka had the unenviable task of cobbling together an alliance to hoist his campaign.

The result was a lonely campaign for the presidency that saw him garner votes largely from his Ukambani turf.

Five years later, Mr Musyoka is in a delicate balancing act as he trains his eyes on State House.

He hopes to land the presidency, or at least, retain his current job (which has been given more authority in the next dispensation).

Mr Musyoka left the G7 grouping of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, after he realised that his position had been given away to the latter and he had been “demoted” to a position believed to be Majority Leader.

The challenge with the position is that the Wiper Democratic Party leader, who has already declared that he will not seek re-election as MP, would have to go back to his Mwingi North constituency and campaign for Parliament.

Two, one cannot bank on the seat because it would depend on the number of MPs the coalition will deliver in the House after the election.

This probably explains why the son of Tseikuru is walking a tightrope, negotiating a pre-election deal with key presidential contenders even as his aides spoke of his “nervousness” about a deal with Mr Odinga.

The enduring question is: Will Mr Musyoka make the right move or a tactical blunder that will dispatch him to political oblivion? Owing to his current position and strong following in his Ukambani backyard, the VP occupies a vantage position to fight to be king or kingmaker.

“We are aware of the difficult choices he has to make, but he has to choose whether he wants to lead or follow,” said Education minister Mutula Kilonzo who, together with chief whip Johnstone Muthama, are pushing for a deal with Mr Odinga’s ODM.

But Mr Musyoka has also held talks with United Democratic Front’s Musalia Mudavadi even as the Uhuru-Ruto camp seems determined to seduce him back to G7. Nominated MP Mohammed Affey says Mr Musyoka’s dilemma reflects that of all aspirants because of the fluidity of the country’s politics.

“The VP’s dilemma is that of Kenya, it is much his dilemma as it is Uhuru’s, Ruto’s and even Raila’s,” says Mr Affey. So far, the Musyoka campaign is clear on why it believes he is the best suited to succeed President Kibaki.

One, he is the second in command and has proved President Kibaki’s loyal deputy. Secondly, Mr Musyoka markets himself as the senior-most of the current crop of hopefuls for State House on President Kibaki’s side of the coalition.

His 27 years in Parliament are only bettered by President Kibaki and Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey. The argument here is that he should be the “natural” choice to head a coalition that brings together Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and Mr Mudavadi.

In another sense, Mr Musyoka’s supporters feel aggrieved that President Kibaki did not endorse the VP who came to the rescue of his presidency following his disputed re-election in 2007.

“It was agreed in writing that President Kibaki and all the parties that supported him in 2007 would back Kalonzo for presidency in 2012,” Mr Muthama says.

Those familiar with the thinking in Mr Musyoka’s camp say he had hoped to be the uniting factor between the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities which fought in 2007/8. Efforts by Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi to build an alliance are said to have triggered renewed efforts by Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta to try to woo the two.

“The two [Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta] fear that if the VP and the DPM come together, they will kill the blackmail trump card which they have been using to whip up emotions on their turf. They have painted Mr Odinga as the monster who took them to The Hague and was waiting to finish them off if he seizes the levers of power,” said a high-level source in the Musyoka camp.

But. like in 2007. fate seems to play him the cruel card and he is left latching at a straw facing the dilemma of his time in which whatever direction he takes will determine whether he retires on a low or a high.

At home he is held hostage by competing interests with local rivals trying to pull him to their respective sides. The integrity case against Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta — who are facing crimes against humanity charges at the Hague — will dramatically reconfigure the political scene.

“As the man who fought the most to help the two during the shuttle diplomacy, he expects to be endorsed if they don’t run. And, even if they don’t endorse him, he can go to the Rift Valley and Central Kenya and tell the voters: you saw what I did for your people,” said Kabianga University College lecturer Herbert Kerre.

Mr Kerre said the Kangundo MP had captured the mood of the local people.

At the centre of Mr Musyoka’s dilemma is the thinking that he could move to Mr Odinga’s side and clinch the running mate position but, if for any reason Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto don’t run, he would lose the ultimate prize as the compromise ticket could go to Mr Mudavadi who is a late comer to their side.

Mr Kilonzo and Wiper party chairman David Musila have dismissed the G7 offer of the posts of Majority Leader and Speaker, saying they would no longer be treated as unequal partners in the alliance.

Mr Kilonzo, who is the party’s secretary-general, said it was always clear G7 was treating their party as a junior partner and defended Mr Muthama’s position.

Former Ntonyiri MP Maoka Maore says while the ethnic configuration of Kenya’s politics did not favour Mr Musyoka in the G7 alliance all along, matters worsened for him when The National Alliance went for Mrs Ngilu.
“They were simply telling him to take a walk. Now he has to jump out of the sufuria or get fried.”

Mr Maore said in the hard choices he has to make, the VP was likely to take the 2002 route in which senior leaders who were humiliated by retired President Moi bypassing them to anoint Mr Kenyatta joined the opposition and handed him defeat at the election.

“He is likely to get back at the people who have been trying to humiliate him,” he said.

Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology concurred with Mr Maore, saying Mr Musyoka will have to eat humble pie and join Mr Odinga, who is equally desperate to have a vote basket from the eastern side of the country.