Kalonzo’s charm campaign puts his career on the line

Having “rescued” Mwai Kibaki’s presidency in 2008 by entering into a coalition with him, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka naturally feels a sense of entitlement to be the frontrunner in the race to succeed President Kibaki in 2012.

In addition, he has been the face of Kenya’s diplomatic push to have the UN defer for one year the cases facing six suspects facing charges at the International Criminal Court for promoting post-election violence, a position that was supposed to raise his profile abroad, but even more critically, at home.

Interestingly, the six suspects hail from the two most populous voting blocks in the country, whose support, if he obtains it legitimately, would most certainly land Mr Musyoka in State House after the 2012 General Election, just 18 months away.

As part of his grand strategy, he has warmed to these groups, chiefly by trying to embed himself in a political alliance with two of the suspects, suspended Higher Education minister William Ruto and Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta. But even then, it has not been easy for him to be accepted.

Opinion polls have consistently placed Mr Musyoka second to Prime Minister Raila Odinga among those favoured to succeed President Kibaki in 2012. The ICC cases against the six have raised the possibility that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto might be rendered ineligible to run.

In such an eventuality, it has been envisaged that the two would back Mr Musyoka for the top post since they are members of the same team, and furthermore, the senior-most among them. But their lieutenants now say this support is not guaranteed.

Although the three – Mr Ruto, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Kalonzo – project an image of camaraderie in public meetings, close associates of Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta tell a different story.

In public and private conversations, they have emphasised that Mr Kalonzo is not part of their 2012 calculations. Three weeks ago, Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, a Ruto ally, was quoted in a local publication saying that Mr Kalonzo was not part of their 2012 schemes.

Despite the positive grades his diplomatic push may have earned him among the Kalenjin, political observer and law lecturer at Moi University Onesmus Murkommen says Mr Kalonzo has to do much more to win their trust.

“He eroded whatever trust the community had for him by joining hands with Kibaki at that critical moment,” he said. “The bottom line is that he is a sly schemer who never reveals his true intentions. My gut feeling is that on one hand he wants to project an image that he is fighting for the Ocampo Six and on the other he wants them to go to The Hague to make the field much smoother for him.”

Echoing these views, international relations lecturer at United States International University Prof Munene Macharia, says that should the Uhuru-Ruto group succeed in portraying Mr Kalonzo as an unreliable person, then his (Kalonzo’s) presidential ambitions would be severely bruised.

“That is a powerful force to be ranged against,” the academic said.

He added that Mr Kalonzo’s personality will undermine his 2012 prospects.

“He does not project himself forcefully, which makes him look untrustworthy, and whatever he does will always be analysed through this lens.”

But Eldoret South MP Peris Simam, a Ruto ally in ODM, defended the VP against attacks by his colleagues. “I think he has done a great job with the shuttle diplomacy, and it is quite unfair for them to say that,” she said.

Mere assumptions

She dismissed as mere assumptions accusations by her colleagues that Mr Kalonzo was not a trusted ally in the Uhuru-Kalonzo-Ruto triumvirate. “I think that is not in good faith, and we should wait and to see proof of it.”

Insisting that Mr Kalonzo’s shuttle diplomacy efforts are genuine, ODM-K nominated MP Shakila Abdalla queried why the first phase of the VP’s efforts were deemed successful if his efforts were laced with ill intentions.

“The truth is that he is doing it for them (the Ocampo Six) as his friends and for Kenya,” she said.

Dujis MP Aden Dualle, who in recent times has strongly associated himself with Mr Ruto, played down the talk of Kalonzo’s isolation. “I am an insider in these things, and I can tell you for sure that the three of them are strongly united.”

Despite sounding optimistic about the three leaders sticking together up to 2012, Mr Dualle added a note of pragmatism: “Definitely there will be fallouts in all parties in the run-up to next year’s General Election. However whatever differences we have, we shall sort them out,” he said.