Friday, June 29, 2012

Poll: Kenyans should brace for election run off

Prime Minister Raila Odinga (right) and his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta (left) in this file picture. A new poll released June 29, 2012 shows that Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta would face off in a second round of voting in the next General Election to determine who succeeds President Kibaki.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga (right) and his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta (left) in this file picture. A new poll released June 29, 2012 shows that Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta would face off in a second round of voting in the next General Election to determine who succeeds President Kibaki.  

By NATION Reporter

Kenyans should be braced for a second round of voting in the next General Election if results of an opinion poll holds true.

While Prime Minister Raila Odinga holds a commanding lead with 35 per cent of Kenyans reporting he is their preferred choice for president, the PM is still below the 50 plus 1 threshold required to clinch the presidency outright.

His nearest challenger, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, is preferred by 17.3pc of those polled by Infotrak Research & Consulting, which released the survey Friday.

This means that Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta would contest a a run off to determine Kenya's next president.

The Constitution stipulates that a candidate will be declared the duly elected president if he garners more than half (50 plus 1) of the popular votes cast. He or she should also amass 25pc of the votes cast in at least 24 of Kenya's 47 Counties.

Other presidential aspirants polled as follows: Eldoret North MP William Ruto (9.9pc), Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka (8.8pc), Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi (8.5pc) Gichugu MP Martha Karua (3.9pc), Gatanga legislator Peter Kenneth (2.0pc), Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa (1.7pc), former presidential advisor Raphael Tuju (1.3pc).

Loose alliance

Of those polled, 8.8pc said they were undecided.

The strategy of the G7, a loose alliance revolving around Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto, Mr Musyoka and Mr Wamalwa to lock out Mr Odinga in their backyards seems to bearing fruit, according to the poll.

The survey shows the PM leading in Nairobi (52pc), Coast (56pc), North Eastern (61pc), Nyanza (78pc) and Western (47pc) but is struggling to win over voters in Central (12pc), Rift Valley (18pc) and Eastern (5pc) the strongholds of Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and Mr Musyoka respectively.

Surprisingly, Mr Odinga is ahead of Mr Mudavadi in western Kenya with 47pc to the latter's 31pc.

According to the poll, the strongest preference among the aspirants to be Mr Odinga's running mate is Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua. A Ruto-Kenyatta ticket gets the most traction among their supporters.

On political parties, the ODM remains the most popular with 48.6pc followed by Mr Musyoka's Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) at 11.1pc. Others are PNU (10.9pc), URP (8.5pc).

At the time the poll was done, Mr Kenyatta's TNA had not been launched, the pollster said.

The survey was conducted between May 17-19 with a sample of 2,400 respondents.

 

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