Mudavadi ‘exit’ pushes State House rivals to tribal corners

The possible exit of Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) throws the presidential race wide open even as questions linger on the wisdom behind his decision.

Mr Mudavadi enjoys the support of the Luhya voting bloc in ODM.

The consequence of Mudavadi’s decision effectively confines all the principal presidential candidates – Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Eldoret North MP William Ruto – to their backyards.

In an environment in which political mobilisation revolves around tribes, each of the candidates now finds himself in his corner: Mr Odinga (Luo Nyanza), Mr Kenyatta with central Kenya, Mr Kalonzo (Ukambani) and Mr Ruto (Kalenjin Rift Valley), and Mr Mudavadi (Western).

And with this, the major challenge for any presidential candidate will be the constitutional requirement that for an individual to be declared president, he or she must garner more than half of the votes cast.

Article 138 of the Constitution also demands that the candidate must garner at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in more than half of the counties.

This means that the successful candidate will be one likely to attract meaningful support from outside his home base. There lies the question: Is Mudavadi’s move likely to earn him more friends outside Western region?

While Mr Mudavadi’s supporters believe he stands a chance of attracting support from Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta’s enclaves, his critics argue that the DPM’s presidential dream remains in ODM, probably after an Odinga presidency.

“Musalia Mudavadi is a bright political star but his star can only shine brightest within the Orange constellation,” says ODM parliamentary group secretary Ababu Namwamba who described Mr Mudavadi’s move as “suicidal”, saying the party offered him the “surest way to the presidency be it now or in the days to come”.

“I urge my dear brother Musalia to ignore the ill-motivated flash-in-pan passing-cloud and keep his eyes on the ball,” he told the Sunday Nation.

But Mr Stanley Rotich, a politician from the South Rift, believes that Mr Mudavadi’s presidential chances are best outside the Orange party, saying he was unlikely to wrest the ODM ticket from Mr Odinga.

However, Mr Rotich reckons that this would depend on Mr Mudavadi’s choice of a new party and running mate.

“He must pick a running mate from outside the western bloc, probably from the Rift Valley where he enjoys some support,” he said.

The DPM has been linked to Cabinet minister Soita Shitanda’s New Ford-Kenya and Trade minister Moses Wetangula’s Ford-Kenya but the two politicians have denied the association.

Mr Mudavadi has cried betrayal over the decision by a section of party officials to deposit the ODM constitution with the registrar of political parties before effecting amendments geared to change presidential nomination rules that would allow him to compete with Mr Odinga.

While Mr Mudavadi’s insists that the changes should have been made before submission of the constitution, ODM secretary-general Anyang’ Nyong’o said that it was deposited for the purpose of compliance with the April 30 deadline and amendments can follow later.

Those supporting the use of the current party constitution argue that it would be difficult to effect the changes which involve convening an NDC before the deadline but Mr Mudavadi holds that it is possible.

Once drafted, the amendments which will be forwarded to the party’s national Governing Council for transmission to the top decision-making organ, the National Delegates Conference which is vested with the authority to ratify them.

Due to the standoff, Mr Mudavadi has sent signals that he might ditch the party.

And even as the Prime Minister on Friday appeared to downplay the rift, statements by the Raila Odinga secretariat and Prof Nyong’o accused Mr Mudavadi of being used by outside forces to wreck the party.

Mr Mudavadi was accused of intimidating and threatening the ODM leadership to change the party’s constitution.

“We are aware of external forces that have been at work since sometime last year, seeking to infiltrate and rock the party from within. These forces remain adamantly at work. We know about their recent activities and meetings in Nairobi and elsewhere. We would caution members of ODM not to fall victim to short-term attraction from these forces,” said Prof Nyong’o.

“Let Kenyans judge for themselves who is being high-handed and dictatorial in this matter,” said a hard-hitting statement signed by Mr Barrack Muluka, the director of communications at Mr Odinga’s campaign secretariat.

Sources close to Mr Odinga read Mr Kenyatta and Ruto’s hand in the Mudavadi move. (READ: Mudavadi in talks with New Ford-Kenya chiefs)