Next elections a make or break for Kenya, warns Annan panel

• Kenyans told to prepare for radical changes the new Constitution brings into their lives, manners, habits, governance systems and ways of delivering justice

When it opened on Monday, the meeting on reforms progress in Kenya led by former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, seemed to follow the script of the first two sessions — all talk, cautions, complaints and buck passing.

This was until Mr Annan, who midwifed the country’s grand coalition government, and retired South African Judge Johan Kriegler spoke the words that could be ringing, for the next 14 months, in the ears of President Kibaki, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, fellow politicians and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.

For Mr Annan, the next General Election would be the most complex ever undertaken in the country, and for Mr Kriegler who led an investigation into what went wrong with the December 2007 elections, the 2012 polls would be a make or break for Kenya.

Quite insightful comments you would say; a kind of reality check for those in government who have been going around the country assuring the public that all will be well come December 17, 2012 — since it appears that would be the date when Kenyans will go to polling stations to elect their next team of leaders.

That the Third Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation (KNDR) meeting since the formation of the coalition government chose themes of living by the Constitution, One Kenya One people, integrity of the electoral process, and developing enduring institutions, was very telling.

Having promulgated a new Constitution, Kenyans must be prepared for the hard work of ensuring that the radical changes it brings into their lives, manners, habits, systems of governance, ways of delivering justice, and all array of human rights it bestows on them are met, they said.

An enormous task, you can say.

And there, in the Plenary Hall at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Nairobi’s Upper Hill, a diversity of Kenyans from politicians, policy makers in ministries and government departments, professionals, heads of commissions, civil society, councils of elders and the media dedicated two days on how the Constitution can be used to conduct the next elections peacefully, and along the course, create enduring institutions that will stop Kenya from going down the abyss as it did in early 2008.

From the speeches of Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende, panelists who included Cabinet ministers George Saitoti, James Orengo and Gichugu MP Martha Karua, it is clear that some work has been accomplished — yet much more needs to be done.

However, it was the contributions of participants that told the whole story — that ordinary Kenyans are optimistic about the future but very realistic about the challenges ahead.

So a few questions beg to be asked about the next elections. Why are Kenyans optimistic about the future? And how come they are realistic about the challenges? What are these challenges?

Let’s begin with the reforms which the grand coalition government was to enact. After the basics of ending violence, humanitarian assistance and sharing political power, the hard job of laying the foundation for the subsequent elections started.

So far, so good.

Cases of key individuals suspected to have planned, funded and executed the post- election violence are at The Hague; a new IEBC has been formed; the Judiciary has been reformed; public appointments are made competitively; reconciliation efforts are on; and key legislation to bring the Constitution into force have been enacted.

These steps, in spite of the slow pace of resettling internally displaced persons, have inspired a feeling of optimism among Kenyans. That if the script, as written in the National Accord and the Constitution are followed to the letter and in spirit, there will be no going back to the dark days.

The institutions which have come into existence, thanks to the Constitution, offer hope, caressing the egos of hitherto cynics and cajoling the faint hearted that a better future lies ahead.

Yet at the same time, a few things come up in their minds, reminding them that the situation could easily spiral into a chasm.

Some examples could suffice.