PNU pact will soon crumble, says Raila

Prime Minister Raila Odinga has poured cold water on the newly-founded PNU Alliance even as its top stalwarts on Saturday embarked on campaigns to market their latest initiative.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Cabinet minister George Saitoti have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to work together and produce a single presidential candidate to face Mr Odinga in next year’s General Election.

The MoU was signed in Nairobi on Friday. A bus with blue, black and gold colours was adopted as the party symbol. (READ: Uhuru allies sign unity pact to fight Raila’s ODM in 2012 poll)

But on Saturday, Mr Odinga described the initiative as a “non-starter”, saying the group was going round in circles.

“To move from PNU Coalition to PNU Alliance is to make no movement at all. It is a sign that things are getting complex for the group, some of whose members started professing KKK, before abandoning it to join G7 which they are abandoning now to join a coalition within a coalition,” he told the Sunday Nation from Kapenguria in the Rift Valley.

He said the group had a “penchant for photo opportunities” in order to create a false impression of unity, saying they will not give him any sleepless nights.

Mr Odinga thinks there is too much smoke inside the PNU kitchen but with very little cooking going on.

Mr Kenyatta and Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi, some of the Alliance’s architects, took their campaign to Tigania East in Meru and asked those seeking the posts of governor and senator to board the unity bus.

“The alliance is open to all like-minded politicians and the unity of central Kenya is key to development,” said Mr Kenyatta.

And, in Narok,Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka expressed confidence that the new group will go places.

“The bus is revving and raring to go. Those interested should board it as we hit the road to determine the next election,” said the VP.

The Friday MoU rekindled memories of a similar power deal between President Kibaki and Mr Odinga, then opposition leaders, ahead of the 2002 General Election, which was violated soon after the Narc coalition dislodged Kanu from power.

And, speaking in Kajiado town on Saturday, Prof Saitoti, who was accompanied by Kajiado Central MP Joseph Nkaissery and Kilgoris MP Gideon Konchella, among others, said that he “has not been asleep”.

He said in Kiswahili: “Mnafikiria kwa muda huu wote nimekuwa nimelala ama nilikuwa ninajipanga?” Do you think all this time I have been serving you I have been asleep or preparing myself for the big seat?

“Let every Kenyan know that I’m contesting this office (presidency); those who wish to think that we are still sleeping, let them think otherwise.”

Prof Saitoti reminded his audience about events of 2002 at the famous Kanu delegates’ meeting held at the Moi Sports Centre Kasarani, where he was humiliated by President Moi, whom he was serving as VP then.

He repeated the words he had used then that the country was more important than an individual, saying he valued having a peaceful nation than shedding blood for political gain.

The issue was triggered by Mr Nkaissery who told Prof Saitoti to announce whether he was in the race for the presidency.

The three PNU politicians have indicated that they will work with Eldoret North MP William Ruto, who has announced that he will cut links with Mr Odinga, in their project.

The latest unity bid is likely to pose a major challenge to all the three PNU leaders owing to the relationship between the key players and history.

Mr Kenyatta’s supporters have made it clear that the Deputy Premier will go for nothing less than the presidency.

The wealthy Finance minister is seemingly emboldened by the huge Central Kenya vote, support by President Kibaki’s rich friends and the anti-Odinga sentiment in Central Kenya and the potential Kalenjin Rift Valley vote. Besides, members of his community have no record of voting for leaders outside their group.

On the other hand, having served as President Moi’s vice-president for more than a decade, Prof Saitoti regards himself as the most experienced politician in PNU, only second to the President.

The thinking here is that the rest of the group should support him. However, his critics say that despite his huge resources, the Internal Security minister lacks a strong constituency.

His perceived closeness with Mr Odinga is also said to be causing discomfort in some sections of PNU.

But a recent article in the Nairobi Law Monthly said that Prof Saitoti’s mixed ethnic background could favour him in an environment of highly tribalised politics. The magazine says that the minister could also be a formidable compromise candidate.

And Mr Musyoka’s supporters have been arguing that, having come to President Kibaki’s rescue during the disputed 2007 presidential election results, the Head of State and his Kikuyu community owe the VP support in the next duel for State House.

He also hopes to exploit the emotive debate against another Kikuyu presidency.

“He must shake off the tag of an opportunist, always waiting to benefit from the troubles of others,” says the article.

But the big question is; Is there a chance of any of them sacrificing his presidential ambitions for the other?

Opinion was divided amongst political observers who spoke to the Sunday Nation. A picture emerged where the Alliance would have to overcome critical hurdles in their unity campaign.

They all pointed out to the candidates’ political histories, credibility, the changing political climate as a result of the new Constitution, The Hague process and growing consciousness amongst Kenyans in making political choices.

“Theirs is a knee-jerk reaction towards a possible Raila presidency. Their Alliance is not organised on any ideology or agenda except the desire to stop Mr Odinga,” said Prof Herbert Kerre, a political analyst and lecturer at Kabianga University College in Kericho.

He noted that the high threshold for presidential candidates set out in the new Constitution will make it difficult for political groupings based on tribes.

But Kenyatta University lecturer Tom Namwamba reckons that the Alliance would work because of a perceived common enemy — Mr Odinga.

“Political seniority and experience will take the back seat for a candidate who can easily be branded and marketed as capable of beating Mr Odinga. The idea of the common enemy will solidify their unity,” said Dr Namwamba.

However, Prof Kerre and former Subukia MP Koigi Wamwere were doubtful of Mr Musyoka’s commitment to stick to the Alliance, owing to his historical records. Mr Wamwere said the Alliance was built on quick sand, singling out Mr Musyoka as the “weak link” in the effort.

“Mr Musyoka’s history has shown that he will not give it to anybody else. He abandoned Mr Odinga ahead of the 2007 elections when it became clear that he was unlikely to throw his weight behind him,” said Mr Wamwere.

Prof Kerre also thinks that Mr Musyoka suffers from “issues of credibility”.

“He has projected himself as a man who cannot be trusted. Some Kenyans felt betrayed by his swift decision to take up a position as vice-president at the height of the violence over the disputed 2007 elections. He will have to explain himself better,” said Prof Kerre.

Dr Namwamba projected the Vice-President as an opportunist.

“The VP is dreaming to board the bus abandoned by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto if their case is confirmed at the International Criminal Court. His political game since 2007 as shown him as indecisive and non-committal on issues touching on the integrity of state operations and transparency.”